ISSS608 2016-17 T3 Assign TEN KAO YUAN GC

VAST Challenge 2017

Introduction

Mini-Challenge 1

Mini-Challenge 2

Mini-Challenge 3

Grand Challenge

Grand Challenge : Tying it All Together

Introduction

After working through all of the data concerning traffic patterns, smokestack plumes, and images of the Preserve, student ornithologist Mitch Vogel now needs to bring the data and discoveries together to tell a coherent and comprehensive story about what he believes is affecting the Rose-crested Blue Pipit.

Mitch sees some relationships among all of the data and the analytics you and he have worked on, but he has run across some additional information that he believes could strengthen his hypotheses about the conditions for the Pipit. Once again, he turns to you, his visual analytics expert, to help him out in sorting through what is important and relevant to creating the story that is taking shape. He believes that combining this new information, with the analyses you have done in Mini-Challenges 1, 2, and 3, will provide considerable insight into the situation.

The Grand Challenge provides you with editions of the "Mistford Industrial Park Newsletter", published semiannually. These editions cover 2013-2016, although the Newsletter has been published in years past as well. Hopefully, they will help with your analysis. Any and all data and results from the mini-challenges may be used in your answers.

Hypothesis

Provide your best hypothesis with supporting evidence of what is happening in the Lekagul Preserve that is affecting the Rose-crested Blue Pipit. Your answer should include identification of who is responsible for the impactful activities, what they are doing, where impactful events are occurring, when and how often these occur, how these events are taking place, and why they are happening.

My hypothesis is that there is pollution coming from the Mistford Industrial Park, in particular from Kasios. Initially Kasios used the harmful VOC chemical Methylosmolene as part of their production. This chemical was outlawed and Kasios had to comply. However switching over to a new substitute has either increased their cost or caused poor quality. Their earnings has plunged. Desperate to turn things around, Kasios as decided to revert to the toxic Methylosmolene. They are currently emitting Methylosmolene from their factory. They are also disposing the evidence into the park in the middle of the night!

#	Evidence	Explanation
Who		Kasios Office Furniture is responsible for the decline of the Blue Rose Crested Pipit. Methylosmolene is a key ingredient used in their production process. Methylosmolene has been banned but Kasios is unable to run their production properly without it. They have resorted to using it illegally.
Crime 1		Liquid forms of Methylosmolene are required by law to be chemically neutralized before disposal. In Mini Challenge 1 we identified a 4 axles truck travelling regularly on Tuesdays and Thursdays, under the cover of darkness to Ranger Stop 3. The truck enters from Entrance 3, where Mistford Industrial Park is located and stops there for 15 minutes. Something suspicious is likely being unloaded here. This is likely the liquid form of Methylosmolene that they are unable to transform or too afraid to vent out in the Industrial Park for fear of triggering the sensors or endangering their own health.
		John Torch is recognized this month (Dec 2015) for his continuing contributions as a transportation worker for Kasios Office Furniture. “Kasios is good to me, and I’m good for them,” Torch says. And even though the hours are sometimes long and hard on the road, Torch is very happy at Kasios. “Sometimes you have to work some pretty odd hours, but I’m a company man through and through.” Our traffic data from May 2015 to May 2016 shows that the incursions into Ranger Stop 3 have been occurring consistently every month on Tuesday and Thursday. John Torch was recognized for his contributions to Kasios in December 2015 and he needed to transport goods at odd hours. As an office furniture company it is unlikely that Kasios needs goods to be delivered with such urgency to require travel at odd hours.
		In addition, based on the border identified in Mini Challenge 3, it appears that there is an administrative border cutting through the Lekagul Natural Preserve; Ranger Stop 3 is located on the other side of the border compared to Mistford Industrial Park located at the bottom left, outside the image. This administrative border, coupled with Ranger Stop 3's isolated location likely made it the choice for Kasios' dumping site.
Crime 2		In Mini Challenge 2 we identified that the sensors are not detecting the AGOC-3A and Methylosmolene properly. Every hour when there is no Methylosmolene reading, there are 2 AGOC-3A readings. There are 2 possible explanations : Kasios is trying to convert Methylosmolene into AGOC-3A but the process is imperfect, causing both chemicals to be released The Methylosmolene values are so high that they are out of the sensor detection range and affect the AGOC-3A sensor as well
		In addition, based on the wind direction data, the Methylosmolene emissions (peak Methyosmolene readings as well as missing Methylosmolene readings are probably coming from the direction of Kasios.
Effect		In addition, when looking at the NDVI value at ranger stop 1 and ranger stop 3 for example, we observe that they are turning more negative, indicating a deterioration in the vegetation
Why		Kasios is polluting for financial reasons. Based on the earnings per share chart, we can clearly see that Kasios' profit started to plunge in June 2013 when Methylosmolene was banned. This continued all the way until Dec 2014 when things started to turn around. Their business was previously highly dependent on Methylosmolene and Kasios was unable to run production profitably without it. Desperate, they decided to break the law; they reintroduced Methyosmolene into their production and released it into the air and also dumped it near Ranger Stop 3. Once this decision was taken, in Dec 2014, their profitability started to climb back up to its' initial state.

Timeline

Provide a timeline that comprehensively describes the relevant activities in Mistford, the Industrial Park, and the Preserve that helps concisely describe the events identified in Question 1.

Date	Event
June 2010	Mistford Environmental Authority sets stricter emissions standards for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to take effect in June 2013.
March 2013	Kasios and Radiance complete the retooling of their processes to eliminate the use of Methylosmolene and other VOCs 3 months ahead of schedule
June 2013	The new standards for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) take effect
June 2013	Kasios is granted $79523 in tax benefits by the Mistford Economic Development Authority to upgrade their facilities. This is a $.2.2million capital investment to increase their production capacity. The project is scheduled to last 3 years, starting early 2014
Oct 2013	Kasios’ Earnings Per Share (EPS) starts to dive, from a high of $7.21 in Oct 2013 to a low of $2.65 in Dec 2014
Early 2014	Kasios’ upgrade to their facilities in the Mistford Industrial Park begins
June 2014	Kasios introduces its new line of executive office chairs, Excaliburr
Oct-Dec 2014	Kasios is in a recruitment drive, hiring more than 30 process engineers, mechanics and transportation experts
May 2015-May 2016	Available Records show unauthorized intrusions into Ranger Stop 3 in the middle of the night at Tuesdays and Thursdays
April, Aug, Dec 2016	Available Records show air sensors anormal behaviour, confusing between readings of Methylosmolene and AGOC-3A
Dec 2015	John Torch, transportation worker is recognized for his contributions to Kasios Robert Steuhaven is named to the Kaios Board of Directors. He is former Chairman and CEO of office supply retailer, PaperKlips
June 2016	Robert Steuhaven is named to the Kaios Board of Directors. He is former Chairman and CEO of office supply retailer, PaperKlips

Confidence

How confident are you in your hypothesis? What factors impact your confidence in your hypothesis? What additional information would help strengthen your hypothesis?

I am moderately confident with the above hypothesis. This is because there is a confluence of evidence from Mini Challenge 1 (regular intrusions by a 4 axle truck to Ranger Stop 3 in the middle of the night), Mini Challenge 2 (Methyosmolene highly likely coming from Kasios based on correlation between sensor readings and wind direction as well as Methyosmolene and AGOC-3A sensors giving confusing readings), Mini Challenge 3 (Image showing Mistford Insdustrial Park where Kasios is located and Ranger Stop 3 being on different sides of an administrative border) and the Mistfort Industrial Park Newsletter which gives spot light to a transportation employee who is required to work odd hours and which highlights the dropping earnings per share of Kasios once Methylosmolene is no longer allowed. The earnings per share recovers in Dec 2014 without any industrial initiative being launched by Kasios.

To strengthen my hypothesis, the operation schedule of the Kasios factory should be made available in order to correlate the intrusions into the ranger stop and the emissions of Methylosmolene with the running of the factory. Higher resolution satellite imagery would also help to pinpoint the damage done to the park by the dumping of chemicals. To better understand how Methylosmolene is spread through the air, additional data like sensor elevation and the density of the emitted Methylosmolene would be required.

What's Next

What are your proposed next steps? Do you have a course of action to correct the problems in the Lekagul Preserve and help the Rose-crested Blue Pipit?

The following steps should be taken:

• Kasios' guilt needs to be confirmed. As such further evidence needs to be gathered to conclusively prove that they are responsible so that they can be charged in the court of law :

• The early morning intrusions need to be linked back to Kasios. As such law enforcement and rangers need to stake out the Ranger Stop between 1am and 6am to gather evidence that dumping is taking place. They then need to tail the vehicle back to the factory to prove the origin of the chemicals.
• Additional sensors should be installed nearer to Kasios and the other factories in order to prove the origins of the Methyosmolene.

• Once there is sufficient evidence, Kasios has to be confronted and has to stop polluting immediately. The employees involved will face charges in court.

• A clean up of the park would be needed to decontaminate it and restore it to it's former health

References and Feedback

References

Feedback
Please leave your feedback here

Daniel!!

First of all, I have to give you my salutations for completing all the mini challenges and grand challenge alone :O You put me to shame lol..

But really impressive piece of work overall and keep up the good effort! --Jason.ong.2016 (talk) 23:25, 14 July 2017 (SGT)