ISSS608 2017-18 T3 Chan En Ying Grace Conclusion

“Mine dear rose pipits, whence did do thou vanish?”

Background

Methodology

Did Rose Pipit kicketh the bucket?

Which song belongs to thee?

Conclusion

First Hypothesis: Pipits surviving, but not thriving on the Preserve.

Key Observations

1. Pipit clusters were significant in 2012 to 2017.
2. Pipit population peaked in 2015, but fell from 2016.
3. Pipit homerange moved away from dumping site, from 2015
4. Pipit clusters became less compact from 2015 and lost its significance in 2017 for radius < 5
5. Pipits stopped singing after 2015. Songs turned into Calls - a sign of distress.
6. Pipits were the only species affected (i.e. their homerange & population).
7. Control Groups (Ordinary Snape & Lesser Birchbeere) thrived and even have their homerange move closer to the dumping site
8. Pipits were spatially dependent to the Ordinary Snapes in 2015, so they should be both exposed and given the same "treatment" if dumping did actually occur, however the Ordinary Snapes were not affected.

Hypothesis: Signs of Dumping But Affected Pipits Only

Rose Pipits were still surviving as its clusters still exist and were significant, until 2017. However, they were not thriving at the dumping site and had to move away from it. Moreover, its population had fallen. This was especially since 2015 was the year that songs turned to calls, moreover, the control groups – OS and LB – did not experience a fall in population and in fact even increased in population and moved closer to the dumping site from 2015, respectively.

So, I conclude that there were signs of Dumping and this was likely to take place in 2015, but the Dumping most likely consisted of chemicals that affected mainly the Rose Pipits, and not the other species.

Second Hypothesis: Pipits NOT being found across the Preserve, based on Kasios Birds

Key Observations

1. Only 2 out of the 15 birds have resemblance to the Rose Pipits.
2. These 2 birds were not found near the dumping site, neither were they found in the previous 2 clusters identified.

Hypothesis: Pipits not found across preserve

Given that only 2 of the 15 birds provided by Kasios were likely to be Pipits, Kasios' claim that the Pipits were thriving across the Preserve is doubted. Based on the set of bird calls supplied by Kasios, it does not support the claim of Pipits being found across the Preserve.

Next Steps to be Taken: Need for RCT to determine if Dumping was the cause

However, we have not confirmed whether dumping was the cause. If it did, then it only affected the Rose Pipits. If it did not, then there must be something else causing the slow death of Pipits.

To test our hypothesis to determine whether it is the dumping that caused it or another event, we can conduct a Randomised Control Trial (RCT). It is a more rigorous way of determining whether a cause-effect relation exists between treatment (dumping substance) and outcome (death of Pipits).

Treatment Group

Introduce the dumping substance to both a Rose Pipit and an Ordinary Snape, at the same location (e.g. at the dumping site at coordinates = (148,159)). Ensure all other variables constant, where possible. If only the Rose Pipit dies after being introduced the substance, while the Ordinary Snape survives, then our hypothesis that "the dumping took place and only affected the Rose Pipits due to its biological make-up", is correct.

Control Group

Introduce the dumping chemical again to a Rose Pipit and an Ordinary Snape, but this time, introduce it to the birds at a different location - say the new cluster at coordinates = (130, 120). If only the Rose Pipit dies after being introduced, then our hypothesis holds. Otherwise, if it does not die, then there must be "something else causing the deaths of the Pipits at the dumping site area, but not due to dumping".

Concluding Video

To wrap it up, please view the 4-minute video capturing the project's storyline at the following link: https://youtu.be/IYQLBHvg3YM.

Enjoy! Your feedback is appreciated.