ISSS608 2017-18 T3 Assign Li Hongxin Conclusions

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Pipits hx.jpg VAST Mini Challenge 1: "Cheep" Shots?

Background

Methodology

Answers

Conclusions

 

Are Pipits actually thriving across the Preserve? Probably Not.

There are still a big amount of Pipits across the Preserve; However, the Pipits are not thriving as before based on the following reasons.

  • The number of Pipits keep growing till 2015, but had a sharp decrease from 2016.
  • The gathering area of Pipits moved away from the dumping site since 2015.


We can conclude that the Pipits were not thriving since 2015. But we don't have 100% confidence that the Pipits were influenced by dumping site due to 2 reasons.

  • We are not sure of the exact construction time of dumping site. 2015 was just a hypothesis we raised based on the visualization.
  • The population of other bird species also decreased at the same time even if they live far away from the dumping site.

Does the set of bird calls are Pipits? No.

By combining the visualization and machine learning methods, only 1 out of 15 test birds can be confirmed as Rose-crested Blue Pipit. And 2 out of 15 are similar with the Pipits. In addition, The Pipits confirmed as Rose-crested Blue Pipit lived away from the dumping site.

Next Steps

In order to confirm whether the Pipits are actually thriving across the Preserve, we should figure out whether the dumping site is the cause of population reduction. The following things should be taken into consideration.

  • Control Group: We may take look at other species live in this Preserve which has similar habits with Rose-crested Blue Pipit. Research on the changes of population and the moving direction of their living area may help us distinguish whether the changes of Pipits is caused by the dumping site or other reasons.
  • Pollution Detection: First, the use the pollutant information across the Preserve may help us to get the possible construction time of the dumping site. Secondly, we can also compare the pollutants found in the Preserve and the chemicals which may affect the Pipit to confirm whether they have some influence on the Pipits.
  • Climate Change: Climate change is an important factor of wildlife. We have to justify whether the reduction of population is influenced by dumping site or just a regular change. This can be done by analyzing the time series patterns of Pipits population and historical climates. Also, we should pay attention to the chemicals in the pollutants which may lead to some climate changes.
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