ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign MA XIAOLIU Epidemic exploration

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Timg.jpg Epidemic Spread in Smartpoils

Overview

Data Preparation

Epidemic exploration

Epidemic cause

Conclusion


When and where

Firstly, I check the frequency of microblogs by hour, it is obvious that from 18 May, there is a large increase in the number of text. On May 18 to 20, the number of text are always very high. This time of period might be the epidemic outbreak time.


Microblogs frequency by hour.jpg


Check the distribution of the people who send the text which related to the epidemic, it can be found that on the first which is May 18, the number of people are increased rapidly and gather in the downtown area. On May 19, except downtown, the river downstream which below the 610 highway appears a lot of people who might get ill. On May 20, the distribution don’t change much, only the number of people seems been declined. Besides many people gather in the hospital.

ID location by time.png

The symptoms’ distribution

Check the distribution of the symptoms, there is an interesting finding. The symptom include diarrhea,nausea, and vomit gather near the river which in the smogtown,, westsile and plainsille. The symptom include breath difficulty, chill, cough, fever and flu are spread widely. Besides, they are main focus in the downtown and the neighborhood, like uptown and eastville.

Symptom Distribution Description
ache

Ach.png || Gathering at 2 places:

  1. Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream;
  2. In the downtown and uptown, near the capital building.
breath

Breath.png || Gathering at 2 places:

  1. In the downtown and uptown, near the capital building
  2. In the smogtown
flu

Flu.png || Has a widely distribution in the city, focus in the downtown and uptown area.

chill

Chill.png || Has a widely distribution in the city, focus in the downtown area.

pain

Pain.png || Gathering at 2 places:

  1. Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream;
  2. In the downtown and uptown, near the capital building

Some gathering in the hospital area.

cough

Cough.png || focus in the downtown area, near the capital buildings

diarrhea

Diarrhea.png || Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream

fatigue Fatigu.png focus in the downtown area, near the capital buildings
fever Fever.png Has a widely distribution in the city, focus in the downtown area.
lymph Lymph.png Just a few people have this symptom, many in the downtown
nausea Nausea.png Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream
sweat Sweat.png focus in the downtown area, near the capital buildings
vomit Vomit.png Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream


According to the symptom distribution, it can be found that not every symptom that distribute in the whole city. Most of them are only focus in 1 or 2 areas. Besides, some symptoms have very similar gathering places and are belong to the same cause. So this epidemic might mixed with different illness but outbreak in the same time period.

Symptom Location Illness Category
Ache, Sweat, Fever, breath, Flu, Chill, Pain, Fatigue, Cough focus in the downtown area, near the capital buildings, also some in the smogtown Flulike illness which is related to Respiratory
Vomit, Nausea, Diarrhea, Pain Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream Intestines and stomach disease
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