ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign MA XIAOLIU Epidemic exploration
|
|
|
|
|
Contents
Epidemic Spread Exploration
When and where
Firstly, I check the frequency of microblogs by hour, it is obvious that from 18 May, there is a large increase in the number of text. On May 18 to 20, the number of text are always very high. This time of period might be the epidemic outbreak time.
Check the distribution of the people who send the text which related to the epidemic, it can be found that on the first which is May 18, the number of people are increased rapidly and gather in the downtown area. On May 19, except downtown, the river downstream which below the 610 highway appears a lot of people who might get ill. On May 20, the distribution don’t change much, only the number of people seems been declined. Besides many people gather in the hospital.
The symptoms’ distribution
Check the distribution of the symptoms, there is an interesting finding. The symptom include diarrhea,nausea, and vomit gather near the river which in the smogtown,, westsile and plainsille. The symptom include breath difficulty, chill, cough, fever and flu are spread widely. Besides, they are main focus in the downtown and the neighborhood, like uptown and eastville.
According to the symptom distribution, it can be found that not every symptom that distribute in the whole city. Most of them are only focus in 1 or 2 areas. Besides, some symptoms have very similar gathering places and are belong to the same cause. So this epidemic might mixed with different illness but outbreak in the same time period.
Symptom | Location | Illness Category |
---|---|---|
Ache, Sweat, Fever, breath, Flu, Chill, Pain, Fatigue, Cough | focus in the downtown area, near the capital buildings, also some in the smogtown | Flulike illness which is related to Respiratory |
Vomit, Nausea, Diarrhea, Pain | Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream | Intestines and stomach disease |
Zero location and affected area
Check the symptom distribution by time, it can be found that the flulike illness which is related to respiratory is outbreak on May 18, which in the downtown area, near the capital buildings. From the symptom distribution above, the influence of this illness is widely. It distributed almost in the whole city, the most influenced place is the uptown and eastville, which is near the downtown. The Intestines and stomach disease is outbreak on May 19, which is Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream. The affected area is the whole river downstream.
Cause of Epidemic
Extra information exploration
Check the text keywords by day in JMP. There are some interesting findings. On May 14, 16 and 17, there are some words have high frequency only in these days which has been showed in the table. These words which have high frequency point out that there must be something happened in this city.
Date | Keywords |
---|---|
5/14/2011 | 'capital building','fire alarm' |
5/16/2011 | 'comic convention','bomb threat','bomb' |
5/17/2011 | 'car accident','smog town','shook in smogtown' |
In order to know what exactly happened in this town, I pick out the keywords and use python, to find the text which include these keywords. Track the location of people who publish these text, and check the content of text.
From this dashboard we can find the location where the people send texts. This can help to know the scope of the issue happens.
()
This table shows the part of the texts, what the issue was and the location it happens.
Causes
Combining the exploration of the epidemic and the addition information, the cause of the epidemic has been revealed. This two illness are all related to the recent issues which happens in the city.
Illness | Speculated cause | Location | Issue happens time | Outbreak time |
---|---|---|---|---|
Flulike illness which is related to Respiratory | The fire near the capital building, and exploration in smogtown generate smoke and Poisonous gases. This might cause disease in people's respiratory. | Fire:Near the capital building in downtown | 5/14/2011 | 5/18/2011 |
Exploration:smogtown | 5/17/2011 | |||
Intestines and stomach disease | The car accident on the 610 highway. The truck will poll the poisonous in river. The river is the water supplement for citizens, so it might cause the disease in people’s intestines and stomach. | On the 610 highway, near the river. | 5/17/2011 | 5/19/2011 |