Difference between revisions of "ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign MA XIAOLIU The cause of this epidemic"

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[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_MA XIAOLIU_The cause of this epidemic| <font color="#FFFFFF">Epidemic cause</font>]]
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[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_MA XIAOLIU_Transmission and development| <font color="#FFFFFF">Transmission and development</font>]]
  
 
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=Extra information exploration=
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=Spread and Transmission=
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Check the text keywords by day in JMP. There are some interesting findings. On May 14, 16 and 17, there are some words have high frequency only in these days which has been showed in the table. These words which have high frequency point out that there must be something happened in this city.  
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Separate the symptoms to different illness group. For different disease, there might be different transmitted method.  
  
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[[file:5.14_keywords.png|300px]] [[file:5.16_keywords.png|300px]] [[file:5.17_keywords.png|300px]]  
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[[file:ma.png|300px]]
  
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{| class="wikitable"
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==Flulike illness which is related to Respiratory==
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|-
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===Airbone===
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! Date !! Keywords
 
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| 5/14/2011 || 'capital building','fire alarm'
 
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| 5/16/2011 || 'comic convention','bomb threat','bomb'
 
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| 5/17/2011 || 'car accident','smog town','shook in smogtown'
 
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In order to know what exactly happened in this town, I pick out the keywords and use python, to find the text which include these keywords. Track the location of people who publish these text, and check the content of text.  
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For the cause of the illness might be smoke and Poisonous gases, airbone might be a transmitted way.
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Check the weather and wind condition from May 14, which is the issue happens time, to the last day. The weather is clear and cloud, besides the wind power is very strong. This kind of weather is very suitable for smoke and gases transmission.  
  
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From this dashboard we can find the location where the people send texts. This can help to know the scope of the issue happens.
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[[file:ma_Weather.png|300px]]
  
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()
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From the distribution of Respiratory disease, it can be found that this disease transmitted to the left sides gradually. This happens to be the same direction as the wind. SO it can be inferred that airbone is one of the transmitted method. Besides, on May 20, many people go to nearby hospital. 
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[[file:Respiratory_disease_transmitted.png|300px]]
  
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This table shows the part of the texts, what the issue was and the location it happens.
 
  
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{| class="wikitable"
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===person to person===
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|-
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[[file:ma_Population.png|300px]]  
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! Date !! Text !! Issue !! Location
 
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| 5/14/2011 || [[file:text1.png|300px]] ||There is a fire near the capital building || Capital building,downtown
 
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| 5/16/2011 || [[file:text2.png|300px]] || There is a bomb treat in this city. || None
 
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| 5/17/2011 || [[file:text3.png|300px]] || There is a car accident at 12pm and on 610 road, which impacted the traffic on raod 270 near the river.|| On the road 610 and road 270, which near the river
 
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| 5/17/2011 || [[file:text4.png|300px]] || There is a explosion in smogtown|| Smogtown
 
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|}
 
  
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=Causes=
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==Intestines and stomach disease ==
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Combining the exploration of the epidemic and the addition information, the cause of the epidemic has been revealed. This two illness are all related to the recent issues which happens in the city.  
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===Waterbone===
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From the picture, it can be found that on May 19, the symptoms appear. On May 20, the disease spread around and the number of people who get ill is increasing. However, the symptoms distribution only near the river. Combing with the car accident which happen on 610 highway near the river, It can be inferred that the toxic substances produced in the car accident flow down the river. The river supply the daily water to nearby citizens, so residents absorb the toxic substances in the river.  
  
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[[file:Intestines_and_stomach_disease_transmitted.png|300px]]
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{| class="wikitable"
 
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|-
 
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! Illness !! Speculated cause !! Location !! Issue happens time !! Outbreak time
 
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| rowspan="2"|Flulike illness which is related to Respiratory  ||rowspan="2"|The fire near the capital building, and exploration in smogtown generate smoke and Poisonous gases. This might cause disease in people's respiratory.|| Fire:Near the capital building in downtown || 5/14/2011 || rowspan="2"|5/18/2011
 
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| Exploration:smogtown || 5/17/2011
 
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| Intestines and stomach disease || The car accident on the 610 highway. The truck will poll the poisonous in river. The river is the water supplement for citizens, so it might cause the disease in people’s intestines and stomach.|| On the 610 highway, near the river. || 5/17/2011 || 5/19/2011
 
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Latest revision as of 17:47, 19 October 2017

Timg.jpg Epidemic Spread in Smartpoils

Overview

Data Preparation

Epidemic exploration

Transmission and development

Conclusion


Spread and Transmission

Separate the symptoms to different illness group. For different disease, there might be different transmitted method.

Ma.png

Flulike illness which is related to Respiratory

Airbone

For the cause of the illness might be smoke and Poisonous gases, airbone might be a transmitted way. Check the weather and wind condition from May 14, which is the issue happens time, to the last day. The weather is clear and cloud, besides the wind power is very strong. This kind of weather is very suitable for smoke and gases transmission.

Ma Weather.png

From the distribution of Respiratory disease, it can be found that this disease transmitted to the left sides gradually. This happens to be the same direction as the wind. SO it can be inferred that airbone is one of the transmitted method. Besides, on May 20, many people go to nearby hospital.

Respiratory disease transmitted.png


person to person

Ma Population.png

Intestines and stomach disease

Waterbone

From the picture, it can be found that on May 19, the symptoms appear. On May 20, the disease spread around and the number of people who get ill is increasing. However, the symptoms distribution only near the river. Combing with the car accident which happen on 610 highway near the river, It can be inferred that the toxic substances produced in the car accident flow down the river. The river supply the daily water to nearby citizens, so residents absorb the toxic substances in the river.

Intestines and stomach disease transmitted.png

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