Difference between revisions of "ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign RACHEL TONG GroundZero"
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− | [[File:sickness_title_rt.jpg|1090px| | + | [[File:sickness_title_rt.jpg|1090px|Sickness in Smartpolis - Rachel Tong]] |
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<div class=toc";float:right>__TOC__</div> | <div class=toc";float:right>__TOC__</div> | ||
− | =Preliminary Exploration= | + | ==Preliminary Exploration== |
In order to decipher the origins of the disease, some preliminary understanding of the situation was necessary. The sections below detail the major findings. | In order to decipher the origins of the disease, some preliminary understanding of the situation was necessary. The sections below detail the major findings. | ||
− | ==Characterizing Symptoms== | + | ===Characterizing Symptoms=== |
From phrase/text-based classification of the Symptoms, 2 distinct symptom groupings, classified based on geolocation clustering and concentration variations with time, are observed to be present. | From phrase/text-based classification of the Symptoms, 2 distinct symptom groupings, classified based on geolocation clustering and concentration variations with time, are observed to be present. | ||
The table below summarizes some of the characteristics observed. | The table below summarizes some of the characteristics observed. | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|- | |- | ||
− | !width=" | + | !width="40"| Symptom Type |
− | !width=" | + | !width="50"| Symptoms |
− | !width=" | + | !width="100"| Patterns Observed |
+ | !width="50"| First Observed | ||
|- | |- | ||
− | | Gastrointestinal-related | + | | Gastrointestinal-related |
+ | || | ||
+ | * Nausea | ||
+ | * Diarrhea | ||
+ | * Stomachache | ||
+ | || | ||
+ | *Strongly concentrated at Plainville/Westside/Smogtown, along river banks | ||
+ | || 05/19/2011, morning | ||
|- | |- | ||
− | |Traditional Flu-like symptoms | + | |Traditional Flu-like symptoms |
+ | || | ||
+ | * Fever | ||
+ | * Sore throat | ||
+ | * Cough | ||
+ | * Cold | ||
+ | * Shortness of breath | ||
+ | * Chills & aches | ||
+ | || | ||
+ | * Strongly concentrated at central region (Downtown, Uptown), and some spillover to Eastside | ||
+ | * Slight funnel shape observed, from western downtown region and spreading out towards the east | ||
+ | || 05/18/2011, morning | ||
|} | |} | ||
− | ==Major Events in Smartpolis== | + | |
+ | ===Major Events in Smartpolis=== | ||
Keeping in mind the possible disease origins and modes of transmissions detailed above, a text-based search was carried out to elucidate major events that occurred over the period of 30 April to 20 May 2011 in Smartpolis. Some of the possible relevant events and incidents include: | Keeping in mind the possible disease origins and modes of transmissions detailed above, a text-based search was carried out to elucidate major events that occurred over the period of 30 April to 20 May 2011 in Smartpolis. Some of the possible relevant events and incidents include: | ||
{| class="wikitable sortable" | {| class="wikitable sortable" | ||
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|} | |} | ||
− | = Ground Zero Hypothesis = | + | ==Ground Zero Hypothesis== |
+ | The following are the hypotheses developed about the 2 major groups of symptoms observed. | ||
+ | [[File:RT GI pattern.jpg|right|380px|Patterns and Ground Zero location for GI-related Symptoms]] | ||
+ | ===Gastrointestinal-related Symptoms=== | ||
+ | *Based on region of impact (demarcated in red) strongly localized at river bank regions (Plainville, Westside, Smogtown, southernmost Villa), likely waterborne origins (Vast River) | ||
+ | *Since only part of river bank regions (specifically, southern river) were affected, water contamination is likely from central area | ||
+ | *Cross referencing with the major events, most likely origin of river contamination is truck cargo spillage along Highway 610 (bridge section, shown by the black arrow) on 17th May | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Traditional Flu-type Symptoms=== | ||
+ | *Symptom-related posts appear in funnel shape(black lines), concentrated from Bridge 610 in the Downtown/central region (below, left; see black arrow), eastwards | ||
+ | [[File:RT Flu pattern.jpg|480px|Patterns and Ground Zero location for Flu-like Symptoms]] | ||
+ | [[File:RT WindSpeedCP.JPG|600px|Daily Wind Directions (Directions indicate the source of wind)]] | ||
+ | *Given that wind was blowing from west to east continuously from the 17th to 18th of May (above, right), the hypothesis is that origin is also likely due to truck cargo spillage | ||
+ | *We thus infer that first human contraction is likely via airborne-medium exposure to spilt cargo from the truck on Highway 610 | ||
<br /> | <br /> | ||
+ | Besides these initial inferences, the further observations made in the course of developing the hypotheses on illness transmission also helped to support these ground zero hypotheses. More details may be found in the following case section on Transmission. | ||
<hr> | <hr> | ||
<!--MAIN HEADER --> | <!--MAIN HEADER --> | ||
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| style="font-family:Arial; font-size:100%; solid #1B338F; background:#2B3856; text-align:center;" width="16.67%" | | | style="font-family:Arial; font-size:100%; solid #1B338F; background:#2B3856; text-align:center;" width="16.67%" | | ||
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− | [[ | + | [[ ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_RACHEL_TONG_GroundZero| <font color="#FFFFFF">'''Origins'''</font>]] |
| style="font-family:Arial; font-size:100%; solid #1B338F; background:#2B3856; text-align:center;" width="16.67%" | | | style="font-family:Arial; font-size:100%; solid #1B338F; background:#2B3856; text-align:center;" width="16.67%" | | ||
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− | [[ | + | [[ ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_RACHEL_TONG_DiseaseSpreadHypothesis| <font color="#FFFFFF">'''Transmission'''</font>]] |
| style="font-family:Arial; font-size:100%; solid #1B338F; background:#2B3856; text-align:center;" width="16.67%" | | | style="font-family:Arial; font-size:100%; solid #1B338F; background:#2B3856; text-align:center;" width="16.67%" | | ||
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− | [[ | + | [[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_RACHEL_TONG_OutbreakContainmentStatus| <font color="#FFFFFF">'''Containment'''</font>]] |
| style="font-family:Arial; font-size:100%; solid #1B338F; background:#2B3856; text-align:center;" width="16.67%" | | | style="font-family:Arial; font-size:100%; solid #1B338F; background:#2B3856; text-align:center;" width="16.67%" | | ||
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− | [[ | + | [[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_RACHEL_TONG_ConcludingRemarks| <font color="#FFFFFF">'''Coda'''</font>]] |
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Latest revision as of 21:53, 15 October 2017
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Part I - Origins |
This section of the notes is dedicated to understanding the disease origins.
Preliminary Exploration
In order to decipher the origins of the disease, some preliminary understanding of the situation was necessary. The sections below detail the major findings.
Characterizing Symptoms
From phrase/text-based classification of the Symptoms, 2 distinct symptom groupings, classified based on geolocation clustering and concentration variations with time, are observed to be present. The table below summarizes some of the characteristics observed.
Symptom Type | Symptoms | Patterns Observed | First Observed |
---|---|---|---|
Gastrointestinal-related |
|
|
05/19/2011, morning |
Traditional Flu-like symptoms |
|
|
05/18/2011, morning |
Major Events in Smartpolis
Keeping in mind the possible disease origins and modes of transmissions detailed above, a text-based search was carried out to elucidate major events that occurred over the period of 30 April to 20 May 2011 in Smartpolis. Some of the possible relevant events and incidents include:
Event | Date | Location |
---|---|---|
Antique Convention | 05/04/2011 | Convention Center, Uptown |
Baseball Game | 05/09/2011 | Westside Stadium, Westside |
Sham Wow Convention | 05/11/2011 | Convention Center, Uptown |
Plane crash and fire | 05/13/2011 | Vastopolis Airport, Northville |
Comic Convention | 05/16/2011 | Convention Center, Uptown |
Explosion | 05/17/2011 | Smogtown |
Truck accident/spillage of cargo | 05/17/2011 | Highway 610 along bridge |
Basketball Match | 05/18/2011 | Vastopolis Dome, Downtown |
Technology Convention | 05/18/2011 | Convention Center, Uptown |
Ground Zero Hypothesis
The following are the hypotheses developed about the 2 major groups of symptoms observed.
- Based on region of impact (demarcated in red) strongly localized at river bank regions (Plainville, Westside, Smogtown, southernmost Villa), likely waterborne origins (Vast River)
- Since only part of river bank regions (specifically, southern river) were affected, water contamination is likely from central area
- Cross referencing with the major events, most likely origin of river contamination is truck cargo spillage along Highway 610 (bridge section, shown by the black arrow) on 17th May
Traditional Flu-type Symptoms
- Symptom-related posts appear in funnel shape(black lines), concentrated from Bridge 610 in the Downtown/central region (below, left; see black arrow), eastwards
- Given that wind was blowing from west to east continuously from the 17th to 18th of May (above, right), the hypothesis is that origin is also likely due to truck cargo spillage
- We thus infer that first human contraction is likely via airborne-medium exposure to spilt cargo from the truck on Highway 610
Besides these initial inferences, the further observations made in the course of developing the hypotheses on illness transmission also helped to support these ground zero hypotheses. More details may be found in the following case section on Transmission.
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