ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign NURUL ASYIKEEN BINTE AZHAR Situation Assessment
Investigation of Smartpolis Epidemic Outbreak
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Contents
Have Symptoms Spread?
The first way to assess severity of the epidemic is through the containment of the disease i.e. whether reported symptoms of the disease has increased at other city zones other than Downtown, Plainville and Westside - these zones charted the most number of reports and are closest to Ground Zero. Figure 1 shows the worrying increase of reported symptoms in city zones of Lakeside and Surburbia. Reported symptoms at Lakeside and Surburbia were way below the average on 18 May (1,127) and 19 May 2011 (1,337). Lakeside had netizen reports of 430 and 810 on 18 and 19 May 2011 respectively whereas Surburbia had netizen reports of 404 and 540 respectively. However, these numbers swelled to 1,700 for Lakeside and 1,166 for Surburbia on 20 May 2011, above the average of 918 messages.
Have Symptoms Deteriorated?
The second way to assess severity of the epidemic is through the conditions of netizens who have previously reported on those symptoms. The condition is inferred to have deteriorated if there are more microblog messages reporting that the netizen is headed to the hospital or is bedridden. Figure 2 plots the instances of hospitalisation and being bedridden against the total reports of sickness by day. Similarly, the trend displayed is worrying. The number of such instances shows a general upward trend. Furthermore, there is a surge in such instances from 19 May to 20 May 2011 (from 105 to 688 messages) although there was a decrease in reports of symptoms (from 17,378 to 11,932).
Should Emergency Resources be Deployed?
The severity of the epidemic shows high on both counts of spread and deterioration. Hence, city officials should deploy the necessary emergency personnel to contain the situation. In particular, these steps may be taken:
- Those working in the Downtown area should be quarantined
- Drinking supply from the Vast River should be ceased
- Efforts to assessment the contamination and cleaning up of the Vast river should commence
