ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign MA XIAOLIU Origin and Epidemic Spread
Epidemic Spread in Smartpoils
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Zero Location
Firstly, I check the frequency of microblogs by hour, it is obvious that from 18 May, there is a large increase in the number of text.
Zoom the day 18 to 20. On May 18, from 7:00am to 8:00am, there is a first sharp increase during this period.it can be estimate that the outbreak time is around at 7:00am to 8:am on May 18. Then we can check the time on the map, to see where is the syptom appears and the people gathering.
Compare the number of ID and their location at 7:00am and 8:00am. It is obvious that the number of people are increased and they gather at downtown. So I think that downtown is the zero location.
Check the symptom distribution. The symptoms also appear in the downtown.
Affected Area
On May 19, the first outbreak of the number of text happens at 1:00 am to 2:00 am. The second outbreak happens at 7:00am. There is a very interesting things is that the outbreak time is at the time that many people are in a dream and the time in the morning rush. According to this phenomenon, it can be speculated that the disease has spread and affected other areas.
Check the map at 2:00am May 19, then we can find that the people which has get the disease or related to the ful is spread to other places. Except the downtown, the people are gathering near the river, which is circled in the map. These areas are affected.
