ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign GONG QIANG
Origin and Epidemic Spread
- Identify approximately where the outbreak started on the map (ground zero location). Outline the affected area. Explain how you arrived at your conclusion. (Please limit your answer to six images and 500 words.)
The first ourbreak looks to have happend in Downtown area on May 18. The affect area was from Downtown to Eastside as per the hourly trend.
Analysis: First of all,by filtering key word : flu|soar|sneez|fever|cough in Text, then sort by blog time (Created_at,converted to Date type), I've managed to narrow down all blogs only to those flu-relevant blogs.
Then load the sorted & filtered data into Tableau,and plot them by day, I can see almost every day people mention flu,fever etc.,but only from May 18, the total amount soared significantly comparing to previous days, after 8am it even hit 123 records which is evidently unusual.(See attached image : GongQiang_T1_Image_1)
As such,I determine the first outbreak happens in May 18.
Moreover,by plotting all blogs into the map per latitude,longitude, put a time animation there to check hour by hour on May 18, I can see outbreak burst in Downtown area then started moving to Eastside. (See attached image : GongQiang_T1_Image_2)
by 18:00 (peak hour when people working in Downtown started moving back to home),the outbreak has spread to almost the whole metropolitan(See attached image : GongQiang_T1_Image_3) ...
Epidemic Spread
- Present a hypothesis on how the infection is being transmitted. For example, is the method of transmission person-to-person, airborne, waterborne, or something else? Identify the trends that support your hypothesis. (Please limit your answer to ten images and 1000 words.)
- Is the outbreak contained? Is it necessary for emergency management personnel to deploy treatment resources outside the affected area? Explain your reasoning. (Please limit your answer to ten images and 1000 words. )
My hypothesis is that the infection is mainly spread by infected people moving from Downtown to their home in suburb,which can be seen on my Tableau work.(OutbreakHour, run animation per each hour on May 18)
Also the wind-direction might also have contributed to the spread as per my observation (but not obvious though). when the wind-direction is E or N or NNW or SE, there seems no Outbreak(see attached image GongQiang_T1_Image_4) while Outbreak happened in the days when the wind-direction is NW or W or WNW(see attached image GongQiang_T1_Image_5)
The outbreak looks not having been contained since May 18 as per the data. I keep seeing high amount of blogs related flu in May 18(GongQiang_T1_Image_6),19(GongQiang_T1_Image_7) and 20(GongQiang_T1_Image_8) and there was no significant drop.
Therefore , it's very necessary for emergency management personnel to deploy treatment resources outside the affected area. People with flu-like symptoms shall be quarantined and not allowed to move to different places until they are confirmed cured. Each area should screen people before they enter the area.
Visualisation Software
Tableau: https://public.tableau.com/profile/gongqiang#!/vizhome/GongQiang_FluOutbreak_v6/OutbreakHour https://public.tableau.com/profile/gongqiang#!/vizhome/GongQiang_FluOutbreak_v6/OutbreakDay https://public.tableau.com/profile/gongqiang#!/vizhome/GongQiang_FluOutbreak_v6/OutbreakWind (I also used R to perform preliminary data analysis including key word filtering,plotting test on map, I also pre-filtered the raw data and exported filtered data joined with weather data using R.)
