ISSS608 2016-17 T3 Anuthama Hypothesis

The Missing Case of the Rose-Crested Blue Pipit

Background

Q1

Q2

Q3

Conclusion

Unusual Patterns

In this page I have discussed some unusual patterns that were seen in the cars movement. I have called out specific vehicles/vehicle type.

Pattern 1

• The dashboard below reveals a few data points about the intrusion. Firstly not all gates have been trespassed, it is only gates 3,5,6.
• The intrusions happen from 2 AM -5 AM which is the time Rangers are not around.
• The intrusions happen only on 2 days Tuesdays and Thursdays.

Pattern 2

When I analysed the paths taken by some of the car IDs I found something that caught my attention. Some vehicles have merely entered and exited the preserve and have not gone to any place in particular inside the preserve.

• 2 passages were popular for trespassing

Entrance 2 <--> 4
Entrance 0 <--> 3

• 1580 Vehicles have gone through just entrances without visiting any parts of the preserve.
• The dashboard that has been filtered based on path to show the usage pattern reveals that May sees a surge in trespassing. This is in not in alignment with to the overall peak cycle for the preserve which is June-Aug.
• All car types except 2P Ranger vehicles have used this pathway for trespassing through the preserve.

Others

I suspect that more vehicles might have trespassed through the preserve but with one or two others sensors picking up the path, so I filter for car ids with 4 sensor readings.

Pattern 3

Next I went on to analyse the frequent flyers and found the patterns 3 - 5.
There is a strange pattern among these vehicles

• These 4 vehicles came to the preserve at night and and were back again the next morning. The first day they entered via a particular entrance gate and exited via the same entrance gate, which means they are not here to trespass, but need to visit the entrance before they arrive the next morning.
• Next morning they are back at the same entrance and took a trip into the preserve.
• The paths taken appear different, but they appear to have gone through Ranger-stop 0 and 2. This could be the destination. They might have some work there.
• All were of the same car type - 4 axle (and above) truck which means the purpose of visit may require a heavy vehicle.
• Interestingly all of them spent most time at entrance on the second morning. Too many similarities for it to be a coincidence. They might be there delivering some goods and probably the goods were being checked at the entrance.

Pattern 4

Car ID 20162904122951-717 exhibited a strange repeated pattern.It is a 2 axle car (or motorcycle) This car has:

• Visited the preserve every Friday for 6 weeks in a row from March 4th –April 10th and has followed the exact same sequence.
• Camped over the weekend at camping 0 and has entered the camp and left through the same path -[Entrance 3 --> General gate 7 --> Camping 0 --> Camping 0 --> General gate 7 --> Entrance 3]. This car has not explored any other parts of the preserve. Could the visit be for a specific purpose and not so much for sight seeing?

The following dynamic image shows the path taken by car ID 20162904122951-717 over the 6 trips. The different colours denote the week at which the trip was made.