Difference between revisions of "ISSS608 2016-17 T3 Anuthama Hypothesis"

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[[ISSS608_2016-17 T3 Anuthama Hypothesis| <font color="#070002">'''Q2'''</font>]]
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[[ISSS608_2016-17 T3 Anuthama Patterns of Life| <font color="#070002">'''Q2'''</font>]]
  
 
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[[ISSS608_2016-17 T3 Anuthama Hypothesis| <font color="#070002">'''Q3'''</font>]]
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[[ISSS608_2016-17 T3 Anuthama Unusual Patterns| <font color="#070002">'''Q3'''</font>]]
  
 
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== Patterns of Life over Time==
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== Unusual Patterns==
 
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Upon understanding a few of the daily patterns it is not a good idea to look at the patterns over longer period. Lets begin by understanding the time spent at the different areas at the preserve.
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In this page I have discussed some unusual patterns that were seen in the cars movement. I have called out specific vehicles/vehicle type.
  
 
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* In general Camping sites are the places where people spent most of their time
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* The dashboard below reveals a few data points about the intrusion. Firstly not all gates have been trespassed, it is only gates 3,5,6.
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* Among camps – camping site  5 >4>8> are more popular. This is not a surprise, the surprising thing is that the time spent at camp 1 is drastically less in comparison to certain entrances and general gates [ like entrance 4 and general gate 7 and 2]
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* The intrusions happen from 2 AM -5 AM which is the time Rangers are not around.
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* The intrusions happen only on 2 days Tuesdays and Thursdays.
  
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[[Image:anu_pic6.png|500px|center|100%]]
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[[Image:Pattern1.png|500px|center|100%]]
  
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<div style="padding-left:15px; text-align:left">
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<font size = 3; color="#070002"><span style="font-family:Ariel;">''' Pattern 2'''</span></font>
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</div>
  
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When I analysed the paths taken by some of the car IDs I found something that caught my attention. Some vehicles have merely entered and exited the preserve and have not gone to any place in particular inside the preserve.
  
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We are curious to know if this pattern is observed across all months or seen only for certain months. Each point on the box plot refers to a month. The box plot on the left confirms that people spent the least amount of time at camp site 1 across all months in comparison to other camp sites. On the other hand we want to investigate if this is due to an overall decrease in cars at camp site 1. The box plot on the right shows that much fewer people chose to camp at camp site 1.
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* 2 passages were popular for trespassing
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  Entrance 2 <--> 4
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Entrance 0 <--> 3
  
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[[Image:anu_pic7.png|500px|center|100%]]
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* 1580 Vehicles have gone through just entrances without visiting any parts of the preserve.
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* The dashboard that has been filtered based on path to show the usage pattern reveals that May sees a surge in trespassing. This is in not in alignment with to the overall peak cycle for the preserve which is June-Aug.
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* All car types except 2P Ranger vehicles have used this pathway for trespassing through the preserve.
  
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[[Image:Pattern 2.1.png|480px|left|100%]]
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[[Image:Pattern 2.2.png|480px|right|100%]]
 
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<div style="padding-left:15px; text-align:left">  
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<font size = 3; color="#070002"><span style="font-family:Ariel;">''' Pattern 2'''</span></font>  
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<font size = 3; color="#070002"><span style="font-family:Ariel;">''' Others'''</span></font>  
 
</div>
 
</div>
  
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There is a steep decline in overall vehicle count from November onward through March. This period coincides with winter and it is possible that the park is not preferred during this period.
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I suspect that more vehicles might have trespassed through the preserve but with one or two others sensors picking up the path, so I filter for car ids with 4 sensor readings.
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[[Image:anu_pic8.png|500px|center|100%]]
 
  
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<br/>
 
<div style="padding-left:15px; text-align:left">  
 
<div style="padding-left:15px; text-align:left">  
 
<font size = 3; color="#070002"><span style="font-family:Ariel;">''' Pattern 3'''</span></font>  
 
<font size = 3; color="#070002"><span style="font-family:Ariel;">''' Pattern 3'''</span></font>  
 
</div>
 
</div>
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Next I went on to analyse the frequent flyers and found the patterns 3 - 5.
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The ranger base was accessed by only 2P vehicles.Surprisingly, 2P vehicles have not crossed any entrance at all. [ This is strange, do they have another entry/exit ?] . How are they assigned thee car ids if they do not pass through the entrance ?
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There is a strange pattern among these vehicles
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[[Image:anu_pic9.png|800px|center|100%]]
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* These 4 vehicles came to the preserve at night and and were back again the next morning. The first day they entered via a particular entrance gate and exited via the same entrance gate, which means they are not here to trespass, but need to visit the entrance before they arrive the next morning.
 +
* Next morning they are back at the same entrance and took a trip into the preserve.  
 +
* The paths taken appear different, but they appear to have gone through Ranger-stop 0 and 2. This could be the destination. They might have some work there.
 +
* All were of the same car type - 4 axle (and above) truck which means the purpose of visit may require a heavy vehicle.
 +
* Interestingly all of them spent most time at entrance on the second morning. Too many similarities for it to be a coincidence. They might be there delivering some goods and probably the goods were being checked at the entrance.
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[[Image:Anu.q3.1.png|1000px|center|100%]]
  
 
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June, July and August is when the camps are popular, with 2 axle car spending the most time at camp sites followed by 2 axle truck
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Car ID 20162904122951-717 exhibited a strange repeated pattern.It is a 2 axle car (or motorcycle) This car has:
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The first arrow confirms the trespassing at Gates by type 4 axle(and above) truck which we noticed previously.This pattern in seen across all months except April. In Q1 we detected this trespassing at Gates and now we find more information about this trespassing. It does not look like a one time event. If the trespassing is happening so frequently it must have been carefully planned. Something that is equally surprising is how such a repeated pattern was not identified by Park Rangers.
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* Visited the preserve every Friday for 6  weeks in a row from March 4th –April 10th and has followed the exact same sequence.
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* Camped over the weekend at camping 0 and has entered the camp and left through the same path -[Entrance 3 --> General gate 7 --> Camping 0 --> Camping 0 --> General gate 7 --> Entrance 3]. This car has not explored any other parts of the preserve. Could the visit be for a specific purpose and not so much for sight seeing?
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[[Image:20162904122951-717.png|700px|center|100%]]
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The following dynamic image shows the path taken by car ID 20162904122951-717 over the 6 trips. The different colours denote the week at which the trip was made.
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[[Image:map.gif|700px|center|100%]]
  
 
<div style="padding-left:15px; text-align:left">  
 
<div style="padding-left:15px; text-align:left">  
 
<font size = 3; color="#070002"><span style="font-family:Ariel;">''' Pattern 5'''</span></font>  
 
<font size = 3; color="#070002"><span style="font-family:Ariel;">''' Pattern 5'''</span></font>  
 
</div>
 
</div>
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2P Ranger vehicles count have almost doubled in May. Why is this happening in May, as per the previous pattern June through August are peak period of footfall at preserve. The count on Fridays is the highest reaching 800.
 
  
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[[Image:2P_movement.png|800px|center|100%]]
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Car ID 20154519024544-322 is the most frequent flyer who had made 16 trips. Naturally I was curious to see the path of this frequent flyer.There was a strange repeated pattern in this visitor too. The car has:
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 +
*Visited the preserve every week from June 19 – Oct 2 for 16 weeks in a row.
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*Camped at camping 4 each time it visited.
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*With the exception of the first trip all other trips have the same path. However in some cases the car left on Sunday from the camp and in some cases it left on a Monday.
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 +
I drilled down further on the data and did an hour wise analysis which revealed that this car arrived around 2-3PM on a Friday and goes to camping 4 and left the camp site on Sunday night closer to midnight which is the reason the car appears to have left the camp on Sunday on certain days and Monday on other days
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 +
[[Image:20154519024544-322.png|1000px|center|100%]]
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The following dynamic image shows the path taken by car ID 20154519024544-322 over the 16 trips. The different colours denote the week at which the trip was made.
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[[Image:map3.gif|700px|center|100%]]
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We noticed that some vehicles came to the park multiple times. Here we have the frequent flyers of the park.
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Someone has found a new home in this preserve. Car ID 20155705025759-63 has been inside the preserve for almost a year now and still has not left the preserve.This car is of type 2 axle car (or motorcycle). We see a pattern where this car goes to each camping site and stays there for weeks together. This behavior is highly suspicious and needs to be further investigated.
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20154519024544-322 --- 16 Trips <br/>
 
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20154112014114-381 --- 7 Trips <br/>
 
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20162904122951-717 --- 6 Trips<br/>
 
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20153712013720-181 --- 4 Trips <br/>
 
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20162027042012-940 --- 3 Trips <br/>
 
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20150204100226-134 --- 2 Trips <br/>
 
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20150322080300-861 --- 2 Trips <br/>
 
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20153427103455-30  --- 2 Trips <br/>
 
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20154501084537-684 --- 2 Trips <br/>
 
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20160623090611-424 --- 2 Trips <br/>
 
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20161008061012-639 --- 2 Trips  <br/>
 
  
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[[Image:anu_pic10.png|800px|center|100%]]
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[[Image:newhome.png|1000px|center|100%]]
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The following dynamic image shows the path taken by car ID 20155705025759-63.The different colours denote the week at which the trip was made.
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[[Image:map4.gif|700px|center|100%]]

Latest revision as of 14:54, 14 July 2017

Bluebird.gif The Missing Case of the Rose-Crested Blue Pipit

Background

Q1

Q2

Q3

Conclusion

 

Unusual Patterns


In this page I have discussed some unusual patterns that were seen in the cars movement. I have called out specific vehicles/vehicle type.

Pattern 1

  • The dashboard below reveals a few data points about the intrusion. Firstly not all gates have been trespassed, it is only gates 3,5,6.
  • The intrusions happen from 2 AM -5 AM which is the time Rangers are not around.
  • The intrusions happen only on 2 days Tuesdays and Thursdays.
100%

Pattern 2

When I analysed the paths taken by some of the car IDs I found something that caught my attention. Some vehicles have merely entered and exited the preserve and have not gone to any place in particular inside the preserve.

  • 2 passages were popular for trespassing
Entrance 2 <--> 4
Entrance 0 <--> 3
  • 1580 Vehicles have gone through just entrances without visiting any parts of the preserve.
  • The dashboard that has been filtered based on path to show the usage pattern reveals that May sees a surge in trespassing. This is in not in alignment with to the overall peak cycle for the preserve which is June-Aug.
  • All car types except 2P Ranger vehicles have used this pathway for trespassing through the preserve.


100%
100%



















Others

I suspect that more vehicles might have trespassed through the preserve but with one or two others sensors picking up the path, so I filter for car ids with 4 sensor readings.


Pattern 3

Next I went on to analyse the frequent flyers and found the patterns 3 - 5.
There is a strange pattern among these vehicles

  • These 4 vehicles came to the preserve at night and and were back again the next morning. The first day they entered via a particular entrance gate and exited via the same entrance gate, which means they are not here to trespass, but need to visit the entrance before they arrive the next morning.
  • Next morning they are back at the same entrance and took a trip into the preserve.
  • The paths taken appear different, but they appear to have gone through Ranger-stop 0 and 2. This could be the destination. They might have some work there.
  • All were of the same car type - 4 axle (and above) truck which means the purpose of visit may require a heavy vehicle.
  • Interestingly all of them spent most time at entrance on the second morning. Too many similarities for it to be a coincidence. They might be there delivering some goods and probably the goods were being checked at the entrance.


100%

Pattern 4

Car ID 20162904122951-717 exhibited a strange repeated pattern.It is a 2 axle car (or motorcycle) This car has:

  • Visited the preserve every Friday for 6 weeks in a row from March 4th –April 10th and has followed the exact same sequence.
  • Camped over the weekend at camping 0 and has entered the camp and left through the same path -[Entrance 3 --> General gate 7 --> Camping 0 --> Camping 0 --> General gate 7 --> Entrance 3]. This car has not explored any other parts of the preserve. Could the visit be for a specific purpose and not so much for sight seeing?


100%

The following dynamic image shows the path taken by car ID 20162904122951-717 over the 6 trips. The different colours denote the week at which the trip was made.

100%

Pattern 5

Car ID 20154519024544-322 is the most frequent flyer who had made 16 trips. Naturally I was curious to see the path of this frequent flyer.There was a strange repeated pattern in this visitor too. The car has:

  • Visited the preserve every week from June 19 – Oct 2 for 16 weeks in a row.
  • Camped at camping 4 each time it visited.
  • With the exception of the first trip all other trips have the same path. However in some cases the car left on Sunday from the camp and in some cases it left on a Monday.

I drilled down further on the data and did an hour wise analysis which revealed that this car arrived around 2-3PM on a Friday and goes to camping 4 and left the camp site on Sunday night closer to midnight which is the reason the car appears to have left the camp on Sunday on certain days and Monday on other days

100%

The following dynamic image shows the path taken by car ID 20154519024544-322 over the 16 trips. The different colours denote the week at which the trip was made.

100%


Pattern 6

Someone has found a new home in this preserve. Car ID 20155705025759-63 has been inside the preserve for almost a year now and still has not left the preserve.This car is of type 2 axle car (or motorcycle). We see a pattern where this car goes to each camping site and stays there for weeks together. This behavior is highly suspicious and needs to be further investigated.

100%

The following dynamic image shows the path taken by car ID 20155705025759-63.The different colours denote the week at which the trip was made.

100%
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