ISSS608 2016-17 T1 Assign1 Alvin Yuen
Contents
Abstract
In this article the public housing resale market in 2015 and the first half of 2016 are studied. The data was obtained from https://data.gov.sg/dataset/resale-flat-prices, and prepared for analysis with Excel, JMP Pro 12.1 and analysed with Tableau. The distribution of market shares in 2015 based on flat type, region and age of flat is studied in this article. The median resale price of the resale flats in 2015 are studied based on region, the impact of floor area and location on price is also analysed. Lastly the public housing resale market in the first half of 2016 is compared against the patterns in 2015 to understand if there are any changes to the market.
Problem and Motivation
More than 80% of Singapore’s population stay in HDB flats, purchasing a flat to many is one of the biggest investment one could made. The Build To Order (BTO) scheme is an acronym (among many others) which we are all familiar with in Singapore, many couples try their hands on balloting for a flat. Unfortunately, we have all heard of (horror) stories of how couples could not get a flat despite many balloting attempts. Hence the resale market is an area which our population could turn to as a viable option for flat purchase. Being a potential flat owner in the future, this write-up allows me to study the supply, distribution and prices of the public housing in Singapore, which hopefully could be relevant in aiding the readers in making informed decisions when evaluating the resale market.
Data Source
The data for the public housing resale market is obtained from https://data.gov.sg/dataset/resale-flat-prices.
Data Preparation
The data source contains 27 different town areas which the resale transactions occurred in, for ease of analysis and better visualization, the towns are categorized into 12 distinct regions as indicated in the map on the left. The 27 town areas are mapped according to the region the town is found in according to the table on the right.
Tools Utilisation
- Microsoft Excel and SAS JMP Pro 12.1 - for data preparation
- Tableau - For Visual Analytics
Public Resale Transactions Distribution in 2015
In 2015, 80% of the total transactions are for the 4 Room (40.16%) and 3 Room (28.02%) flats, the rest of the transactions consist mainly of 5 Room (7.60%) and Executive (7.60%) flats. The transaction volume for 2 Room (0.82%), 1 Room (0.05%), and Multi-Generation (0.01%) are rather insignificant at approximately 1% of total market share in 2015.
In 2015, 80% of the transactions had occurred in Northern regions (Far North, North West and North East) at 41.31%, Far East region at 11.84% and Far West region at 10.37%, and Central North region at 9.77% and Central South region at 6.72%. However, the central region in totality contributed to 35.69% of the total transactions in Singapore in 2015.
The chart above provides the percentage distribution in each flat type, based on the geographical spread across 12 regions. The total percentage of all the regions for each flat type add up to 100%. In 2015, the supply of resale transaction of 1 Room and Multi-Generation came solely from the Central South region and Central North region respectively. For 2 room flats, the majority of the supply in 2015 came from the Central regions of Singapore. It can be noted that the 2 room flats supply are comparatively older than the supply of other flat types, with the majority of the flats in the 31 to 50 age range.
In terms of age range, the resale flats supply of 3 Room flats is also predominantly in the 31 to 50 years bracket, with some proportion of flats in the 11 to 30 years range. However for the 4 Room to Executive flat types, the spread of age range became more and more dominated by the 11 to 30 years flat age range. Another point to note for the age group for the flat supply is that the younger flats tend to be found in the North East region where there is better representation of flats in the younger age range as compared to the other regions. For example, for 2 Room flats, North East’s composition is predominantly 1 to 10 years, and for the 4 Room flats, the 1 to 10 years age group also has better representation as compared to the other regions.
In terms of supply of flat types, it can be observed that the Central regions, Upper East Coast region supplied most of the 2 Room and 3 Room flat types while the Northern (North East and Far North), Far East and Far West regions tend to supply the majority of the 4 Room, 5 Room and to a lesser extent the Executive flats.
Public Resale Housing Prices in 2015
The median resale price per sqm meter by district suggests that the resale price of the flats in the east coast and central regions command the highest price per square meter in the year 2015. The lowest price per square meter can be found in the North and North West regions. The median price per square meter was taken into consideration because amongst the same flat types there are flats of different sizes, breaking the resale price into square meter would allow for a fairer assessment.
Excluding the 1 Room flat and Multi-Generation flat where resale transactiosn had only occurred in the Central South and Central North district regions respectively in 2015, the median resale price per square meter of the 2 Room to Executive flats can be largely split into 3 categories. Flats residing in the East Coast and Central regions commanded the highest median resale price per square meter amongst all flat types. The mid-range median resale price per sqaure meter for flats are found in the Upper East Coast, North East, Far East and Far West regions. The low price per square meter range consist of flats in the North West and Far North regions. Hence the median price per square meter could be broadly categorized into three categories, high, mid and low.
.jpg)
There seems to be a clear hirerachy in the resale price according to the locations in each region. In the Central Region the median resale price follows the order of Central Area, Bukit Timah and Toa Payoh, in the Central North it is Bishan, Ang Mo Kio and Serangoon, in the Central South it is Queenstown follow by Bukit Merah, in the Central East it is Kallang/Whampoa follow by Geylang. Despite the similar floor area for all flat types in each region, the median resale price was consistently hierarchical in these regions. This may suggest that in these regions, a good location is an important influencing factor in affecting the resale price.
.jpg)
For flats in the North-East region (Hougang, Punggol and SengKang), there is no standout location which could command a higher resale price than the other two areas within the same region. The floor area available was observed to have a positive impact for the 5 room and Executive flat types,as a larger median floor area in Hougang was met with a higher median resale price in this location. In both the Far West and Far East regions, there exist a standout location, Jurong East and Tampines in their regions respectively, as despite having roughly the same floor area as compared to the locations within the same region, the median resale price of Jurong East and Tampines are consistently higher for all flat types found within the same region.
.jpg)
For flats in the North-Western region, the median resale price of flats in Bukit Batok has been consistently above that of flats in Bukit Panjang and Choa Chu Kang, despite the median floor area being relatively similar across all three locations. This shows that in this region, having a favourable location had a bigger influence on the resale price of the flats. On the other hand in the Far North region, for 4 Room flats and below, there is no standout location within this region as given roughly the same median floor area, the median resale price is roughly the same in the three locations. For 5 room and Executive flat types in this region, given a relatively larger floor area in Yishun and Woodlands than Sembawang, it can be observed that the median resale price for these two flat types are higher, this may suggest that floor area of a flat could drive the resale price up.
Public Resale Patterns in 2016
Similar to 2015, the supply of the 1 Room flat had came from the Central South region, in 2015 it was earlier noted that the key characteristics of the resale supply for the 2 Room flats was the high concentration in the Central regions and the majority of the flats being in the 31 to 50 age range. However in 2016 there is an increasing representation of the North East region in the supply for 2 Room flats. With this, the age range of the resale flats in 2016 had also became relatively younger with more representation of flats in the 1 to 10 years age group. Similar to 2015, the spread of flat age range also became more inclined towards the 11 to 30 years range as the flat type changes from 3 Room flat to the Executive flat. In terms of the supply of flats in terms of percentage of total by region, there is similarity with the statistics from 2015, where the composition of the 4 Room to Executive flat type consist mainly of resale flats in the Non-Central regions.
Similar to 2015, the median resale price per square meter can also be categorized into the high, mid and low range by regions. In addition like what was observed in 2015, the differences in the resale price become more apparent as the flat type changes from 2 Room flat to Executive flat, in addition the impact of region on the resale price is also more obvious for the 4 Room, 5 Room and Executive flat.
_-_Year_2016.jpg)
Within each individual location in the region categorized as the high resale price range, similar hierarchical relationship was also observed, similar to what was observed in 2015. Despite the locations within the same region having approximately the same median floor area, the differences in median price can still be observed. For example within the Central region, the Central Area is consistently more expensive than Bukit Timah and Toa Payoh for all flat types. This pattern is also observed in the other central regions.
_-_Year_2016.jpg)
Similar to 2015, there is no standout location in the North East region (Hougang, Punggol, Seng Kang) which is much more expensive than the other two regions in this geographical region in Singapore. The postive impact of floor area on the median resale price in the 5 Room and Executive flat category was also observed in 2016 at the North East region. Jurong East and Tampines continued to be the more expensive location within the Far West and Far East region.
_-_Year_2016.jpg)
For the first half of 2016, the location of Bukit Batok continued to allow it to command a median resale price as compared to Bukit Panjang and Bukit Timah. Especialy for the 4 Room and 5 Room flats. The floor area available seems to be a important indicator to drive the resale price up in the 5 Room and Executive flat type.
