Analysis
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| Population Growth Trend & Forecast |
In this population we will be using the Singstat’s `Singapore Residents by Planning AreaSubzone, Age Group, Sex and Type of Dwelling, June 2011-2019` data provided. There are few objectives that we want to understand from the population historical data:
- Understand the population trend for each subzone and age group classification (younger group, economic active group, and aged population) in order to facilitate basic necessities for each age group.
- Forecast the future population trend up to 2024 using the auto ARIMA model to re-evaluate the MP19.
- Interpreting the Arima model
- Similar application of ARIMA model in forecasting population trends:
- Zakria, Muhammad & Muhammad, Faqir. (2009). Forecasting the population of Pakistan using ARIMA models.. Agri. Sci. 46.
- Nyonyi, T and Mutongi, C. (2019). Prediction of total population in Togo using ARIMA models.
- Lin, Bin-Shan, et al. “Using ARIMA Models to Predict Prison Populations.” Journal of Quantitative Criminology, vol. 2, no. 3, 1986, pp. 251–264. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/23365635.
- Make recommendations according to the population trend insights
