Mini Challenge 1: Smartpolis Epidemic Spread

Task 1. Origin and Epidemic Spread

The outbreak started from 18 May with a sudden spike on chills and flulike symptom message cases, and keep a stable growth on 19 May and 20 May, where the numbers are far larger than all the earlier dates.

It origins from CBD (Downtown and Uptown), which are the most severe infection areas with an outbreak from 18 May and started to increase on the following days. It then spread largely over to Eastside zone firstly, mainly due to the wind direction blowing from west to east at the outbreak time. Afterwards, it expanded to other areas via other transmissions affected areas are Suburbia, Lakeside, Southville, Plainville, Riverside, Westside, Villa, Smogtone, Northville, and Cornertown. The largest number of infections are in CBD zone.

Conclusion are drawn from below detailed observations.

Observation 1 – Time Line and Heatmap View

• From 30 Apr to 17 May, the number of infections are relatively very small as indicated by the light blue colour.
• On 18 May, the distribution chart shows that the flu, chills and diarrhea cases has a significant increase from 18 to 1,879 and keep rise to 6,566 on 19 May and 9,106 on 20 May.
• Staring from 18 May, there is an outbreak of some flulike symptoms indicated by strong blue colour and a sharp increase seen from the time line chart- chills (1,931 cases), breath difficulty (1,916 cases), cough (405), fever (3,384 cases), headache (2,439), fatigue (1,919 cases) and sweat (1,873 cases).
• On 19 May, the infection cases are growing and spreading over; 1,795 cases mentioned about flu; new symptoms like runny nose, sore throat, diarrhea, nausea surfaced with large number infections - chills (grows to 3,857 cases), breath difficulty (1,577 cases), cough (grows to 1,539), fever (2,867 cases), headache (1,500 cases), fatigue (1,471 cases) and sweat (1,411 cases); runny nose (1,093 cases), sore throat (1,094), diarrhea (628 cases), and nausea (765 cases).
• On 20 May, the diseases is still spreading over the whole city; new symptoms like Pneumonia surfaced with large number infections - chills (grows to 4,427 cases), cough (1,223), fever (1,237 cases), sweat (1,411 cases), flu (2,495 cases), diarrhea (2,142 cases); pneumonia (3,634 cases), vomit(510 cases)

• On 18 May, It can be seen from the word cloud that majority of the people mentioned about cold, chills, sweats, headache,breath shortness, fatigue, and sick.

• It can be seen from the hourly heatmap for each date, on 18 May, the number of infections increased largely drastically from 8am onwards till end of the date with a high spike on 18pm.
• On 19 May, the number of infections keep growing with a steady rate between 8am onwards till end of the date.

Observation 2 – Satellite Map View

17 May 2011 Snapshot

• On 17 May, it can be seen from the map that the infections are very few and spread sporadically in the map.

18 May 2011 Snapshot

• On 18 May, there was a large outbreaks of infections in day time between 7am and 7pm , they were mostly concentrated in CBD zone i.e. Downtown and Uptown, and Eastside.
• The other affected areas has much lesser contagious cases. However, it also shows a large growth compared with earlier date.

• On 18 May, it can be seen from the above bubble chart that CBD zone i.e. Downtown (Top 1) and Uptown (Top 2) followed by Eastside (Top 3) has the biggest number of infections compared with other zones.

• On 18 May, it can also be seen from the above line chart that there was a breakout in CBD zone and eastside zone.