ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign MA XIAOLIU Transmission and development
Epidemic Spread in Smartpoils
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Contents
Spread and Transmission
For different disease, there might be different transmitted method. So,separate the symptoms to different illness group. Check their transmission one by one.
Airbone
For the cause of the illness might be smoke and Poisonous gases, airbone might be a transmitted way.
Check the weather and wind condition from May 14, which is the issue happens time, to the last day. The weather is clear and cloud, besides the wind power is very strong. This kind of weather is very suitable for smoke and gases transmission.
From the distribution of Respiratory disease, it can be found that this disease transmitted to the left sides gradually. This happens to be the same direction as the wind. SO it can be inferred that airbone is one of the transmitted method. Besides, on May 20, many people go to nearby hospital.
person to person
In order to know the change of the population from day to night, I make a calculation of the daytime population and population. The negative value means the population in day time is higher than the total population in this zone. On the contrary, the positive value means the total population is higher than population in day time. From this picture, it can be found that the population in downtown it not the most biggest one, but the day time population is the largest. It shows that downtown, westville and uptown is the working place. These places will have the high population density.
on May 18, at 8:00am, the people who have the symptom of the illness gather in uptown, downtown, which are the working places. Except the west side which have the obvious increasing of the population who get the disease, the other place also have many people get illness as the time pass by.
The assumption is that the illness outbreak in the working place which have a high density of people, as the people from other zone come to this place, they also get the illness. So person to person transmission is might another way.
Intestines and stomach disease
Waterbone
From the picture, it can be found that on May 19, the symptoms appear. On May 20, the disease spread around and the number of people who get ill is increasing. However, the symptoms distribution only near the river. Combing with the car accident which happen on 610 highway near the river, It can be inferred that the toxic substances produced in the car accident flow down the river. The river supply the daily water to nearby citizens, so residents absorb the toxic substances in the river.
Epidemic Development Tendency
