ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign LIM LIANG DANNY GroundZeroLocation
Smartpolis Epidemic Outbreak
| A Visual Detective Journal
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Contents
Where are the mircoblog messages originated coming from?
Base on the information given on the epidemic spread, the symptoms can be categorised mainly into 2 type of epidemic diseases, namely Respiratory and Gastrointestinal infections.
Symptoms related to Respiratory Infection are flu, fever, sweats, chills, cough and sore throat.
Symptoms related to Gastrointestinal Infection are stomachache, diarrhea, nausea, vomit, cough and abs pain.
By categorizing the microblog messages using the keywords related to each infection symptoms, we can see that:
- Respiratory related symptoms are pratically seen all over the Vastopolis City, mainly concentrated in Downtown and Uptown zone with sign of spreading across into the eastern part of Eastside and Northern part of Lakeside zone.
- Gastrointestinal related symptoms are mainly concentrated and contained only in Smogtown, Plainville and Southern part of Westside and Villa. This shows the Gastrointestinal related infection are pretty contained and isolated within the 4 city zone.
Respiratory Related Symptoms
- In summary, the respiratory issues has already spread throughout the whole city and the above tree map serves as a very good alert indicator to put Downtown and Uptown on high alert with the most number of reported cases.
- It is interesting to note that Downtown has the most number of reported case but as compared to it’s population density, Uptown has the higher overall population density ratio than downtown.
- This implies that people in these areas are mostly infected with the respiratory virus and chances of visitor contacting the respiratory diseases as compared to other zones in the city is deemed to be higher.
- There is also some concentration of reported case in Eastside and Northern part of Lakeside during the daytime which could give an indication that the respiratory virus has spread eastward especially during working hours.
Gastrointestinal Related Symptoms
- This tree map results serves as a very good alert indicator to put Plainville and Smogtown on high alert with the nigh no. of reported cases.
- It is interesting to note that Plainville and Westside has more reported case as compared to Smogtown and Villa which could give an indication that the epidemic spread for Gastrointestinal disease could have started from this 2 zone before spreading to Smogtown and Villa.
- Interestingly, Smogtown has the highest infected case to population density as compared to the other 3 zone. This could due to the fact that Smogtown is small in terms of population density and most of the people residing in the zone might have come in contact with the virus through some common activities.
When did the outbreak starts?
Respiratory Viral Outbreak on 18th May 2011
The line graph (left) above shows that there is a surge in message related to Respiratory infection symptoms on 18 May 2011.
Reported cases continue to spike on 19 May 2011 before subsiding in 20 May 2011.
Gastrointestinal Viral Outbreak on 19th May 2011
The line graph (right) above shows that there is a surge in message related to Gastrointestinal infection symptoms on 19 May 2011.
Reported cases continue to spike on 20 May 2011 mainly in Plainville an Westside zone.
What causes the viral infection?
Since the viral outbreak for Respiratory diseases and Gastrointestinal diseases starts from 18 May and 19 May respectively, it makes very good sense to backtrack and take a look at the notable events that happen at least 3 days before the outbreaks to look for clues of a possible ground zero location.
In total, 6 notable events was highlighted of which 4 are road accident related, 1 plane crash and 1 explosion. Out of the 6 events, 2 of them that falls on 17 May is a cause of concern. They are namely the Smogtown Explosion and Truck Accident on 610 between Plainville and Westside.
Key information from microblogs messages
- Smogtown Explosion: Loud Explosion, Huge Smoke, Lasted for 9 hours from 11:00 AM to 08:00 PM
- Truck Accident: Truck Topple, Truck Cashed, Fire Break Out, Spills from Truck Storage, Lasted for 11 hours from 09:00 AM to 08:00 PM
Smoke from the Smogtown explosion is very likable cause for the respiratory cases where huge smokes are emitted from the burning of unknown material after the explosion which last for 9 hours. This hypothesis for respiratory infections is further supported with the fact that the wind is blowing from the West and West North West direction in the next 2 days that spreads the smoke towards downtown area where most resident commute to work.
Spills from the truck that could have flow into the vast river below the highway and contaminating the water could have causes the gastrointestinal infection. This hypothesis for gastrointestinal infection further is supported with the fact that vast river is flowing southwards at 3 miles per hours and could have contaminated the river water between Westside and Plainville before hitting resident in Smogtown and Villa. As Vast river water was known to be used for water sports and recreation activities, people residing along the river bank could have come in contact with the gastrointestinal virus when the river water flows southwards. This also help explain that more gastrointestinal cases are reported in Westside and Plainville than Smogtown and Villa as they might have come in contact with the virus first.
Conclusion
Base on above findings and supporting evidence, Smogtown Explosion and the Truck accident on Runway 610 is a very possible incident that start the epidemic spread. Therefore, Smogtown and Runway 610 between Plainville and Westside are the two likely possible Ground Zero location that causes Vastopolis resident to be sick and resulting in the epidemic outbreak.
