ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign Xiao Zhenyu Visualisation & Analysis 2
Mini Challenge 1: Smartpolis Epidemic Spread
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Contents
Task 2. Epidemic Transmission and Spread
The transmission method is most likely to be on mixed mode by person-to-person, airborne and waterborne from the observation and analysis.
On 18 May, there is a large number of outbreak of case of chills in Eastside and CBD zone (Downtown and Uptown) at day time, and symptoms like cough, fatigue, breath difficulty, fever and sweat were reported. The population density in CBD zone and Eastside is very high during daytime, about 500,000 people over a small area compare with other zones. At night time, the number of infections are spreading over to other areas outside CBD zone like Suburbia, Riverside, Lakeside, Southville, Plainville, Westside, Smogtown and Villa. On 19 May, the situation becomes worse as large number of cases reported flu after contagious with flulike symptoms. The number of infection with various symptoms grows rapidly and wide spreading over all zones compared with 18 May.
The possible story would be large number of people caught case of chills as large cold wind was blowing to the west at that day. After working hour, people went back home and the disease spread over to the residential areas. The wind was blowing from the west with wind speed of 9 miles per hour on the date. In 2 hours times, it can travel 18 miles and sweep over the entire Vastopolis. The immediate areas affected would be Eastside, Suburbia, Lakeside and CBD zone. The flu pathogen could be transmitted by air to other areas and infect the whole city. There were also large cases of Nausea and Vomit and Diarrhea reported on the 19 and 20 May. As we know residents and businesses get the drinking water by pumping water from nearby reservoirs or rivers, the water might be polluted by disease pathogen which causes the rapid and wide spread outbreak of the epidemic
Conclusion are drawn from below detailed observations.
Observation 1 – Timeline and Satellite Map View
• It can be seen from the infection summary chart that the flu, chills and diarrhea cases has a significant increase starting from 18 May till 20 May compared with other days.
• On 18 May, there was an outbreak from 7am to 9am and 17pm to 18pm. On 19 May, there was an outbreak from 1am to 2am and 7am to 9am.
• On 20 May, there was an outbreak from 1am to 3am. The total infections reach a peak at 9,106.
Epidemic Trend Analysis
17 May 2011 Snapshot
• On 17 May, it can also be seen from the map that there is few cases of chills and flu reported, where CBD zone has more cases.
18 May 2011 Snapshot
• On 18 May, it can also be seen from the 1st map that the case of chills grows rapidly to 1,931 in day time (refer to observation 1). And mostly spread over Eastside and CBD zones (Downtown and Uptown).
• It can also be seen from the 2nd map that the case of chills reported in night time grows and are spreading over to other area outside CBD zone like Suburbia, Riverside, Lakeside, Southville, Plainville, Westside, Smogtown and Villa.
• On 18 May, it can also be seen from the 1st map that the symptoms reported in day time are spreading all over the zones, while Eastside and CBD zone has the largest numbers.
• It can also be seen from the 2nd map that the symptoms reported in night time are moving to other area outside CBD zone like Suburbia, Riverside, Lakeside, Southville, Plainville, Westside, Smogtown and Villa.
• On 18 May, the case of Nausea and Vomit together reported only 11 and there is no Diarrhea case.
• It proves that the flu is not likely transmitted via waterborne as the infections is not found spreading over areas near river or lakes.
19 May 2011 Snapshot
• On 19 May, it can also be seen from the map that large number of cases reported flu after contagious with flulike symptoms.
• On 19 May, it can also be seen from the map that the situation becomes worse as the number of infection with various symptoms grows rapidly and wide spread over all zones compared with 18 May.
• On 19 May, beside chills, flu and fever, there are also lot of messages posted related to flu, stomach, nausea, and diarrhea as seen from the word cloud graph.
• It can be seen from the satellite map that there was a significant outbreak of Diarrhea, Nausea with cases reported in Plainville and Smogtown. As we know residents and businesses get the drinking water by pumping water from nearby reservoirs or rivers, the water might be polluted by disease pathogen which causes the rapid and wide spread outbreak of the epidemic
• It proves that the flu is also transmitted via waterborne as the infections is found spreading over areas near river or lakes.
Observation 2 – Weather and Population View
• It can also be seen from the weather chart that on 18 May, the wind direction is west and weather is clear with average wind speed of 9 miles per hour.
• On 19 may, the wind direction is west-northwest and weather is cloudy with average wind speed of 9 miles per hour.
• It can also be seen from the population chart that Suburbia has the largest number of population (392,858) in day time followed up CBD area (375,000).
• CBD area (Downtown and Uptown) has the largest number of people movement (119,048 in non-daytime vs 375,000 in daytime).
Task 3. Epidemic Infection Status
The outbreak epidemic is not contained effectively at the moment. From the last observed records on 20 May, the epidemic spreading still grows and prevails over the entire city with no signs of reduction. New symptoms like Pneumonia occurred wide spread which indicates the situation becomes worse. In addition, large number of Nauses, Diahrrea and vomit reported at Plainville, Westside and Smogtown zones, where many hospitals are spotted nearby. Large number of Nauses, Diahrrea and vomit reported at Plainville, Westside and Smogtown zones, where many hospitals are spotted nearby. For the reported cases of ‘Feeling Better’ is only below 10, which indicates most infected people are still suffering from the flu diseases.
Conclusion are drawn from below detailed observations.
Observation 1 – Timeline and Satellite Map View
• On 20 May, It can be seen from above distribution chart that the infection number increases from 6,566 to 9,106 with 38% growth. There are still large number of infections for the flu, chills and diarrhea cases.
• On 20 May, the average level of infections still higher than 18 and 19 May, although the cases reported becomes relatively stable on hourly interval, there were still small outbreaks in period like 3am-5am, 10am-11am and 18pm to 19pm.
Epidemic Trend Analysis
20 May 2011 Snapshot
• On 20 May, it can also be seen from the above maps that the epidemic spreading still grows and prevails over the entire city with no signs of reduction.
• On 20 May, It can also be seen from the above map that new symptoms – Pneumonia occurred which indicates the situation and infection condition turns worse. Pneumonia will cause death to human if not treated well.
• On 20 May, It can also be seen from the above map that there were large number of Nauses, Diahrrea and vomit reported at Plainville, Westside and Smogtown zones, where many hospitals are spotted nearby.
• On 20 May, It can also be seen from the above chart that the epidemic are still spreading over each zone with no sign of reducing cases.
• On 20 May, it can also be seen from the above map that for the reported cases of feeling better is below 10… which indicates most infected are still suffering from the flu diseases.
