ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign FOO CELONG RAYMOND/Recommendations

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Containment of air borne outbreak

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For the air borne outbreak, there is generally a downward trend after the 19-May across all symptoms except for chill, cough, flu and pains. Flu and cough are symptoms with later onset time as compared to the other symptoms which can explain why it is still increasing while the rest of the symptoms have started to decrease. The increasing number of people experiencing pain can be explained by it being a shared symptom with the second outbreak.

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Although there is a overall downward trend in reported cases in the whole region within the last 3 days, city zones that are further away from ground zero are experiencing increasing number of outbreak symptoms reports. This is likely to be due to diffusion of the agent to the outer regions of the map, which will slowly increase the concentration of the agent in the outskirt city zones. The condition of these zones is expected to deteriorate at a slow pace until the concentration of the agent starts to reduces.

Main points/Recommendation:

  •  Overall there is a decreasing trend across the region
  •  The worst is over for the areas that had been severely affect by the outbreak
  •  Outskirt city zones will see a slow increase in number of patients with the outbreak's symptoms
  •  Emergency management personnel is required in the outskirt area since they will experience an slow increase in the number of patient
  •  Moderate amount of medical resources should be allocated to the outskirt areas to help them cope with the increase in patient


Containment of water borne outbreak

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For the water borne outbreak, on one hand there is sharp decrease in reports of people being nauseous, but the other hand, two symptoms have increased in the number of posts. There is insufficient evidence in the data to determine if the outbreak situation is going to improve or deteriorate further.

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Looking from the city zones' perspective, only 4 city zones are affected and the outbreak is contained in these zones. But the fact remains that all 4 zones have seen an increased in the number of reports in the symptoms. As such, there is no need to allocate emergency management personnel to any other area but additional medical personnel should be allocated to the 4 city zones as a precaution.

Main points/Recommendation:

  •  The outbreak is contained within 4 city zones (westside, plainville, smogtown and villa) which are along the vast river
  •  The 4 zones have seen increase number of report in the symptoms over the last 2 days
  •  There is insufficient data to determine if zone is recovering or deteriorating.
  •  Emergency management personnel is required in the in this area as a precaution


Other Comments

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It should be noted that one day prior to the explosion at smogtown, there were chatters in the downtown area of the threat of a bomb. Given that the explosion did happen in smogtown on the next day and the proximity of the truck accident that caused the outbreak on the same day, the idea that the truck accident is a premeditated act should not be ignored and additional precaution should be taken to prevent such incident.