ISS608 2017-18 T1 Assign KyonghwanKim Solution

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Title.png

Vastropolis Epidemic Report

Background

Data Preparation

Visualization

Solution

Reference

Feedback

 


1. Origin and Epidemic Spread

Identify approximately where the outbreak started on the map (ground zero location). Outline the affected area. Explain how you arrived at your conclusion. (Please limit your answer to six images and 500 words.)


Below line graph shows key words distribution from Contagion_Flag.csv file.


Keyword1.png


Key word, as well as the Diagnosis Word, flu remain calm till May 18th, and shoot up from 19th and 20th. Whereas, another Diagnosis Word, cold start to shoot up for May 18th and decrease back after. For Symptom key words, it start to increase from 18th and hit its peak on 19th.

From here, it is safe to say that words describing symptoms appear 1 day before flu. Therefore, symptoms plot on May 18th is closely monitored.


Symmap18.png
Symptom text traffic on May 18th


Map shows large symptom text traffic in Downtown and Uptown area, and graph is splitted in hours of activity to track what happened more precisely.

Hours, May 18th 0700-0800 0800-0900 2000-2100
Map Sym7.png Sym8.png Sym20.png


Symptom traffic was clam until 07:00 and started to leap up from 08:00. People mainly in Downtown started to have symptoms and it also start to spread to Eastside area. By 20:00 on same day, symptom text traffic appear all over Vastropolis area. It is not surprising that contagion from top 2 area with the highest floating_population would spread to all over the city.

Ground Zero area for Epidemic Outbreak: Downtown


2. Epidemic Spread

Part A

  • Present a hypothesis on how the infection is being transmitted. For example, is the method of transmission person-­to­-person, airborne, waterborne, or something else? Identify the trends that support your hypothesis. (Please limit your answer to ten images and 1000 words.)

Hypothesis 1: People

Contagion outbreak started from Downtown, the 2nd largest area with floating_population.

Population.png

  • Top 3 area with positive (inflow) floating_population: Uptown, Downtown, Westside
  • Top 3 area with negative (outflow) floating_population: Lakeside, Southville, Plainville

Symflu1.png

Contagion outbreak time is May 19th, 08:00.

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