ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign Fam Guo Teng Containment and Resource Deployment
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Contents
Outbreak Containment
Based on the previous hypothesis section, we have identified two main transmission methods of the current outbreaks.
- Airborne transmission causing Respiratory-related symptoms
- Waterborne transmission causing Gastrointestinal-related symptoms
To find out whether both respiratory and gastrointestinal epidemics have been contained, we need to investigate the data trends of these two different situations.
Figure 12 shows the highlighted keywords that have an upward trend in the duration of the epidemic. These keywords are of concern because they might signify the amount of people getting infected is increasing and out of control. These keywords have to be looked at with greater detail.
The identified keywords are: Breath, Chills, Diarrhea, Flu, Hospitalized, Pains, Pneumonia, Sick, Vomit
Upon closer inspection, many of the microblog messages are actually reporting on loved ones suffering from the symptoms, and may not truly reflect the true number of infected patients. Using JMP Pro 13.0 to filter out records with said keywords on a day-to-day basis, and then sub-filtering them with commonalities between the text. Messages that were more accurate in determining the true number of patients were manually filtered out.
Symptom Accounts From People Other Than Victims
The filtering keywords are listed in the below table. The number of true accounts affect how the symptoms are perceived. Symptoms such as Breath (signifying breathing issues), Chills, Sick show a downward trend. The term "Hospitalized" is too general, and with a count of only 68 records, have been dismissed as a useful variable in the analysis. The terms "Diarrhea", "Flu", "Pains", "Pneumonia", and "Vomit" still have a significant upward increase. They can also be linked to the gastrointestinal-related symptoms category, that is transmitted via the waterborne transmission method.
| Keyword | Filter Keywords | 05/17/2011 | 05/18/2011 | 05/19/2011 | 05/20/2011 | Self-Reported (Y/N) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breath | is having | 0 | 1961 | 1571 | 1268 | Y |
| Breath | is having | 0 | 0 | 0 | 520 | N |
| Chills | has come; has caught | 0 | 1865 | 3218 | 2081 | Y |
| Chills | has come; has caught | 0 | 0 | 900 | 2366 | N |
| Flu | has come; has caught | 0 | 0 | 1680 | 2269 | Y |
| Flu | has come; has caught | 0 | 0 | 896 | 1645 | N |
| Hospitalized | is hospitalized | 0 | 0 | 0 | 68 | Y |
| Hospitalized | is hospitalized | 0 | 0 | 0 | 493 | N |
| Pneumonia | has come; has caught; has a | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1002 | Y |
| Pneumonia | has come; has caught; has a | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2674 | N |
| Sick | is sick; declining health; is [only on 05/20/2011] | 0 | 543 | 943 | 248 | Y |
| Sick | is sick; declining health; is [only on 05/20/2011] | 0 | 352 | 634 | 1969 | N |
| Diarrhea | <NIL> | 0 | 0 | 628 | 2099 | Y |
| Diarrhea | <NIL> | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N |
| Pains | <NIL> | 0 | 0 | 1 | 629 | Y |
| Pains | <NIL> | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N |
| Vomit | <NIL> | 1 | 0 | 64 | 983 | Y |
| Vomit | <NIL> | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N |
Airborne Transmission
<Coming Soon>
Waterborne Transmission
<Coming Soon>
Taking into account the downward trends of the symptoms as well as filtering out reports done by other people and not by the actual victims, both of the outbreaks look to have been contained and do not need any additional resources to contain them.
Resource Deployment
Emergency management personnel should be deployed to the various hospitals located around Smartpolis. In particular, the following hospitals are more heavily affected by the outbreak and needs additional help:
- Corner Hospital
- Westside Hospital
- Villa Hospital
- Plainville Hospital
- St. Mark's Hospital
- River Hospital
- Lakeside Hospital
- Southville Hospital
Sufficient measures should be taken to warn people about the water-based activities and sports etc...<Coming Soon>
Since both identified epidemics are likely to be contained after 05/20/11, there should not be any need to deploy any additional emergency management personnel elsewhere besides the hospitals and the affected areas (Figure 1).
