ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign FOO CELONG RAYMOND/Hypothesis
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From the preliminary analysis and in the process of identifying the ground zero, two clear sets of symptoms belonging to two different outbreaks. I hypothesize that these two outbreaks are cause by a single incident on 17-May along highway 610 that occurred after the bridge to downtown. This report will identify the 3 factors of the transmission model (agent, host, environment) and provide evidence to support the claims.
The hypothesized series of event is as follows:
| 17-May | : | Accident occurs along highway 610 towards downtown |
| 17-May | : | Agent is introduced to the air and high concentration of the agent is blown eastward exposing hosts in the area |
| 17/18-May | : | Agent contaminates water along vast river either through diffusion into water all direct spillage of contaminants into the water body and thereby exposing hosts living downstream that relies on river for their water supply |
| 18-May | : | Hosts infected by the airborne agent start to report their symptoms |
| 19-May | : | Hosts infected by the waterborne agent start to report their symptoms |
| 20-May | : | Reduction in respiratory symptoms which may be because the concentration of the agent in the air has diffused to a lower amount. |
Two clear sets of symptoms belonging to two different outbreaks are identified and each set belongs to a different class of disease. The symptoms supports the hypothesis that the first outbreak is an airborne transmission while the second outbreak is a water bourne transmission.
| Incubation Period | Class of Disease | Likely Transmission Method | Symptoms | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18-May outbreak | ~1 Day | Respiratory | Air Borne |
|
| 19-May outbreak | 1-2 Day | Gastrointestinal | Ingestion |
|
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