ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign NURUL ASYIKEEN BINTE AZHAR Transmission
Investigation of Smartpolis Epidemic Outbreak
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What were the Most Affected Areas
Examining the main affected areas would provide clues on the transmission mode of the epidemic. Figure 1 shows that Downtown, Plainville and Westside have the most number of sick related messages for 18 May 2011 and 19 May 2011 with Downtown dominating the top spot with 6,169 and 7,013 sick messages on those days respectively. Thus, the transmission mode(s) should be in such a manner that can affect these city zones the quickest.
Downtown
Figure 2 examines the first hour since the noticeable surge of disease related messages on 18 May 2011 at 8.10am. From 8 am to 9am, symptoms of the disease were reported the most by Netizens in the Downtown area.
Interestingly, the shape of the messages gives a distinct horizontal shape, towards the East. Such a phenomenon may be explained by the weather conditions on 17 May 2011, during which the incident for Ground Zero occurred, and the days succeeding that. From the previous section on "Grond Zero", we know that the truck collision resulted in a fire. Hence, there is a possibility that the contents on the truck(s) may be harzardous of which a blaze can send harzardous particles airborne.
Figure 3 shows the weather throughout the days where it was sunny for both 17 May 2011 and 18 May 2011; these are the pivotal days for the disease transmission if it is airborne. Since it did not rain, it is highly likely that the harzardous particles remained airborne for imminent transmission.
