Difference between revisions of "ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign FOO CELONG RAYMOND/DisprovingtheTheories"
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<td width="20%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:center;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND|Home]]</td> | <td width="20%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:center;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND|Home]]</td> | ||
<td width="40%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:right;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND/MakingSenseOfTheChatter|Making Sense of the Chatters >]]</td> | <td width="40%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:right;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND/MakingSenseOfTheChatter|Making Sense of the Chatters >]]</td> | ||
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| + | <div style="color:#0F1940; padding-left: 10px; font-size: 24px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">Conjecture</div> | ||
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| − | <p> | + | <p>I eliminated some ideas I have in mind.</p> |
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| + | <div style="color:#0F1940; padding-left: 10px; font-size: 24px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">1. Human-Human Transmission of Pathogen</div> | ||
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| + | <p>Considering that that the first outbreak is concentrated in downtown and uptown where the day time population is high, I first suspect it is a human-human transmission disease. An event in the uptown's convention center was held on the same day of the outbreak which could jump start the outbreak.</p> | ||
| + | <p>Why this is unlikely:</p> | ||
| + | <ul> | ||
| + | <li> Preliminary analysis indicates that the first outbreak is a point source outbreak. Human-Human transmission disease typically results in a continuous common source epi curves unless there is a quick quarantine measures by the city.</li> | ||
| + | <li> It does not explain the high incident rate that is conical shape towards the east for the first outbreak.</li> | ||
| + | <li> It does not explain the high incident rate that forms along the vast river for the second outbreak.</li> | ||
| + | </ul> | ||
| + | <p>The human-human transmission does not explain the first or the second outbreak.</p> | ||
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| + | <div style="color:#0F1940; padding-left: 10px; font-size: 24px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2. Explosion at Smogtown caused the outbreak</div> | ||
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| + | <p>I noticed chatters of the explosion one day before the explosion which indicate the explosion might be premeditated to cause harm. The explosion might have caused the first outbreak by introducing contaminants into the air that is blown towards the downtown area by the wind that is blowing eastward. The explosion could have also contaminated the vast river one day later causing the second outbreak.</p> | ||
| + | <p>Why this is unlikely:</p> | ||
| + | <ul> | ||
| + | <li> There is no information with regards to the direction of the river flow. But it we assume the river flow is northward to explain the spread, it still does not explain why a concentration of people displaying symptoms of the second outbreak the further away we get from smogtown.</li> | ||
| + | <li> Even if the wind brought the air contaminants to downtown, smogtown would still be the ground zero or have a significantly high number of people with the symptoms of the first outbreak. This was not observed.</li> | ||
| + | </ul> | ||
| + | <p>The explosion does not explain the first or the second outbreak.</p> | ||
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| + | <table style="width:900px;"> | ||
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| + | <td width="40%" style="color:#ffffff;;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND/IdentifyGroundZero|< Identify Ground Zero]]</td> | ||
| + | <td width="20%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:center;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND|Home]]</td> | ||
| + | <td width="40%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:right;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND/MakingSenseOfTheChatter|Making Sense of the Chatters >]]</td> | ||
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