ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign MA XIAOLIU Epidemic exploration

Epidemic Spread in Smartpoils

Overview

Data Preparation

Epidemic exploration

Epidemic cause

Conclusion

Epidemic Spread Exploration

When and where

Firstly, I check the frequency of microblogs by hour, it is obvious that from 18 May, there is a large increase in the number of text. On May 18 to 20, the number of text are always very high. This time of period might be the epidemic outbreak time.

Check the distribution of the people who send the text which related to the epidemic, it can be found that on the first which is May 18, the number of people are increased rapidly and gather in the downtown area. On May 19, except downtown, the river downstream which below the 610 highway appears a lot of people who might get ill. On May 20, the distribution don’t change much, only the number of people seems been declined. Besides many people gather in the hospital.

The symptoms’ distribution

Check the distribution of the symptoms, there is an interesting finding. The symptom include diarrhea,nausea, and vomit gather near the river which in the smogtown,, westsile and plainsille. The symptom include breath difficulty, chill, cough, fever and flu are spread widely. Besides, they are main focus in the downtown and the neighborhood, like uptown and eastville.

Symptom	Distribution	Description
ache		Gathering at 2 places: Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream; In the downtown and uptown, near the capital building.
breath		Gathering at 2 places: In the downtown and uptown, near the capital building In the smogtown
flu		Has a widely distribution in the city, focus in the downtown and uptown area.
chill		Has a widely distribution in the city, focus in the downtown area.
pain		Gathering at 2 places: Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream; In the downtown and uptown, near the capital building Some gathering in the hospital area.
cough		focus in the downtown area, near the capital buildings
diarrhea		Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream
fatigue		focus in the downtown area, near the capital buildings
fever		Has a widely distribution in the city, focus in the downtown area.
lymph		Just a few people have this symptom, many in the downtown
nausea		Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream
sweat		focus in the downtown area, near the capital buildings
vomit		Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream

According to the symptom distribution, it can be found that not every symptom that distribute in the whole city. Most of them are only focus in 1 or 2 areas. Besides, some symptoms have very similar gathering places and are belong to the same cause. So this epidemic might mixed with different illness but outbreak in the same time period.

Symptom	Location	Illness Category
Ache, Sweat, Fever, breath, Flu, Chill, Pain, Fatigue, Cough	focus in the downtown area, near the capital buildings, also some in the smogtown	Flulike illness which is related to Respiratory
Vomit, Nausea, Diarrhea, Pain	Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream	Intestines and stomach disease

Zero location and affected area

Check the symptom distribution by time, it can be found that the flulike illness which is related to respiratory is outbreak on May 18, which in the downtown area, near the capital buildings. From the symptom distribution above, the influence of this illness is widely. It distributed almost in the whole city, the most influenced place is the uptown and eastville, which is near the downtown. The Intestines and stomach disease is outbreak on May 19, which is Below the 610 highway, near the river downstream. The affected area is the whole river downstream.

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Cause of Epidemic

Extra information exploration

Check the text keywords by day in JMP. There are some interesting findings. On May 14, 16 and 17, there are some words have high frequency only in these days which has been showed in the table. These words which have high frequency point out that there must be something happened in this city.

Date	Keywords
5/14/2011	'capital building','fire alarm'
5/16/2011	'comic convention','bomb threat','bomb'
5/17/2011	'car accident','smog town','shook in smogtown'

In order to know what exactly happened in this town, I pick out the keywords and use python, to find the text which include these keywords. Track the location of people who publish these text, and check the content of text.

From this dashboard we can find the location where the people send texts. This can help to know the scope of the issue happens.

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This table shows the part of the texts, what the issue was and the location it happens.

Date	Text	Issue	Location
5/14/2011		There is a fire near the capital building	Capital building,downtown
5/16/2011		There is a bomb treat in this city.	None
5/17/2011		There is a car accident at 12pm and on 610 road, which impacted the traffic on raod 270 near the river.	On the road 610 and road 270, which near the river
5/17/2011		There is a explosion in smogtown	Smogtown

Causes

Combining the exploration of the epidemic and the addition information, the cause of the epidemic has been revealed. This two illness are all related to the recent issues which happens in the city.

Illness	Speculated cause	Location	Issue happens time	Outbreak time
Flulike illness which is related to Respiratory	The fire near the capital building, and exploration in smogtown generate smoke and Poisonous gases. This might cause disease in people's respiratory.	Fire:Near the capital building in downtown	5/14/2011	5/18/2011
		Exploration:smogtown	5/17/2011
Intestines and stomach disease	The car accident on the 610 highway. The truck will poll the poisonous in river. The river is the water supplement for citizens, so it might cause the disease in people’s intestines and stomach.	On the 610 highway, near the river.	5/17/2011	5/19/2011