Difference between revisions of "ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign FOO CELONG RAYMOND/Preliminary"
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<p>The epidemioloic triad is a traditional model for infectious disease. It consists of the external agent, the susceptible host and the environment that results in the interaction between the host and the agent. My hypothesis for the transmission will need to address the 3 factors.</p> | <p>The epidemioloic triad is a traditional model for infectious disease. It consists of the external agent, the susceptible host and the environment that results in the interaction between the host and the agent. My hypothesis for the transmission will need to address the 3 factors.</p> | ||
[[File:RaymEpi17May.png|500px|center]] | [[File:RaymEpi17May.png|500px|center]] | ||
| − | <p>On studying the Epi curve of the individual symptoms, I noticed not all the symptoms starts at the same time. One group of symptoms that manifested on the | + | <p>On studying the Epi curve of the individual symptoms, I noticed not all the symptoms starts at the same time. One group of symptoms that manifested on the 18-May onwards. The epi curves of the 18-May symptoms suggest that I am looking at <u>point source outbreak</u> because it has the telltale shape of steadily reaching the peak and declining after reaching the peak. A continuing source would have sustained the peak for a longer time and even have multiple peaks.</p> |
[[File:RaymEpi19May.png|500px|center]] | [[File:RaymEpi19May.png|500px|center]] | ||
| − | <p>The second group of symptoms manifest on the 19-May onward. This | + | <p>The second group of symptoms manifest on the 19-May onward. This may be due to symptoms that develop in the later stage of the illness or even caused by a unrelated outbreak of a separate disease. However, because the data presented only contains micro blog up to 20-May, there is insufficient data to determine if this set of epi curves is a point source or a continuing source outbreak.</p> |
[[File:RaymEvents.png|500px|center]] | [[File:RaymEvents.png|500px|center]] | ||
<p>Notable events that may be related to the outbreak are truck accidents, conventions and an potentially premeditated explosion.</p> | <p>Notable events that may be related to the outbreak are truck accidents, conventions and an potentially premeditated explosion.</p> | ||
Revision as of 15:31, 14 October 2017
The epidemioloic triad is a traditional model for infectious disease. It consists of the external agent, the susceptible host and the environment that results in the interaction between the host and the agent. My hypothesis for the transmission will need to address the 3 factors.
On studying the Epi curve of the individual symptoms, I noticed not all the symptoms starts at the same time. One group of symptoms that manifested on the 18-May onwards. The epi curves of the 18-May symptoms suggest that I am looking at point source outbreak because it has the telltale shape of steadily reaching the peak and declining after reaching the peak. A continuing source would have sustained the peak for a longer time and even have multiple peaks.
The second group of symptoms manifest on the 19-May onward. This may be due to symptoms that develop in the later stage of the illness or even caused by a unrelated outbreak of a separate disease. However, because the data presented only contains micro blog up to 20-May, there is insufficient data to determine if this set of epi curves is a point source or a continuing source outbreak.
Notable events that may be related to the outbreak are truck accidents, conventions and an potentially premeditated explosion.
