Difference between revisions of "ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign MA XIAOLIU Transmission and development"
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| − | <font size = 5; color="#FFFFFF"> Epidemic Spread in | + | <font size = 5; color="#FFFFFF"> Research of Epidemic Spread in Smartpolis</font> |
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| − | [[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_MA XIAOLIU_Transmission and development| <font color="#FFFFFF">Transmission and | + | [[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_MA XIAOLIU_Transmission and development| <font color="#FFFFFF">Transmission and Tendency</font>]] |
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=Spread and Transmission= | =Spread and Transmission= | ||
| − | + | For different disease, there might be different transmitted method. So,separate the symptoms to different illness group. Check their transmission one by one. | |
| − | [[file:ma.png| | + | [[file:ma.png|350px|center]] |
==Flulike illness which is related to Respiratory== | ==Flulike illness which is related to Respiratory== | ||
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For the cause of the illness might be smoke and Poisonous gases, airbone might be a transmitted way. | For the cause of the illness might be smoke and Poisonous gases, airbone might be a transmitted way. | ||
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Check the weather and wind condition from May 14, which is the issue happens time, to the last day. The weather is clear and cloud, besides the wind power is very strong. This kind of weather is very suitable for smoke and gases transmission. | Check the weather and wind condition from May 14, which is the issue happens time, to the last day. The weather is clear and cloud, besides the wind power is very strong. This kind of weather is very suitable for smoke and gases transmission. | ||
| − | [[file:ma_Weather.png| | + | [[file:ma_Weather.png|600px|center]] |
From the distribution of Respiratory disease, it can be found that this disease transmitted to the left sides gradually. This happens to be the same direction as the wind. SO it can be inferred that airbone is one of the transmitted method. Besides, on May 20, many people go to nearby hospital. | From the distribution of Respiratory disease, it can be found that this disease transmitted to the left sides gradually. This happens to be the same direction as the wind. SO it can be inferred that airbone is one of the transmitted method. Besides, on May 20, many people go to nearby hospital. | ||
| − | [[file:Respiratory_disease_transmitted.png| | + | [[file:Respiratory_disease_transmitted.png|1000px|center]] |
| + | ===person to person=== | ||
| + | In order to know the change of the population from day to night, I make a calculation of the daytime population and population. The negative value means the population in day time is higher than the total population in this zone. On the contrary, the positive value means the total population is higher than population in day time. From this picture, it can be found that the population in downtown it not the most biggest one, but the day time population is the largest. It shows that '''downtown''', '''westville''' and '''uptown''' is the working place. These places will have the high population density. | ||
| − | + | on May 18, at 8:00am, the people who have the symptom of the illness gather in uptown, downtown, which are the working places. Except the west side which have the obvious increasing of the population who get the disease, the other place also have many people get illness as the time pass by. | |
| − | [[file:ma_Population.png| | + | |
| + | The assumption is that the illness outbreak in the working place which have a high density of people, as the people from other zone come to this place, they also get the illness. So person to person transmission is might another way. | ||
| + | |||
| + | [[file:ma_Population.png|600px|center]] | ||
==Intestines and stomach disease == | ==Intestines and stomach disease == | ||
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From the picture, it can be found that on May 19, the symptoms appear. On May 20, the disease spread around and the number of people who get ill is increasing. However, the symptoms distribution only near the river. Combing with the car accident which happen on 610 highway near the river, It can be inferred that the toxic substances produced in the car accident flow down the river. The river supply the daily water to nearby citizens, so residents absorb the toxic substances in the river. | From the picture, it can be found that on May 19, the symptoms appear. On May 20, the disease spread around and the number of people who get ill is increasing. However, the symptoms distribution only near the river. Combing with the car accident which happen on 610 highway near the river, It can be inferred that the toxic substances produced in the car accident flow down the river. The river supply the daily water to nearby citizens, so residents absorb the toxic substances in the river. | ||
| − | [[file:Intestines_and_stomach_disease_transmitted.png| | + | [[file:Intestines_and_stomach_disease_transmitted.png|1000px|center]] |
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| + | =Epidemic Development Tendency= | ||
| + | Firstly, check the number of text in the last few days. It can be found that the number of text is declined. However, Because we have 2 kinds of illness, we should see the trend line for each one of them. I do the forecast for this two illness, to check the tendency in the next 2 days. | ||
| + | [[file:Contained.png|600px|center]] | ||
| + | On the left side is '''intestines and stomach disease tendency'''. It is obvious that the line haven't get its highest point, and in the next 2 days, the number of text which about this illness will be increased. So this illness might be contained in the few next days and will keep increase to a large extent. So the city officials should pay more attention on the illness and Is it necessary for emergency management personnel to deploy treatment resources near the river and the further places. Besides, the officials should clean up toxic substances in the water as quickly as possible, to prevent more and more people drink the water in this river. | ||
| + | |||
| + | On the right side is ''' Flulike illness which is related to Respiratory'''. In the next 2 days, the illness will keep stable and there might be a small range of ups and downs fluctuation. This illness might contained for a while but it is declined. So the there is no need more emergency treatment. The hospitals in the city is enough to deal with it. | ||
| + | |||
| + | [[file:For.png|450px]] [[file:Forecast1.png|450px]] | ||
Latest revision as of 00:31, 23 October 2017
Research of Epidemic Spread in Smartpolis
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Contents
Spread and Transmission
For different disease, there might be different transmitted method. So,separate the symptoms to different illness group. Check their transmission one by one.
Airbone
For the cause of the illness might be smoke and Poisonous gases, airbone might be a transmitted way.
Check the weather and wind condition from May 14, which is the issue happens time, to the last day. The weather is clear and cloud, besides the wind power is very strong. This kind of weather is very suitable for smoke and gases transmission.
From the distribution of Respiratory disease, it can be found that this disease transmitted to the left sides gradually. This happens to be the same direction as the wind. SO it can be inferred that airbone is one of the transmitted method. Besides, on May 20, many people go to nearby hospital.
person to person
In order to know the change of the population from day to night, I make a calculation of the daytime population and population. The negative value means the population in day time is higher than the total population in this zone. On the contrary, the positive value means the total population is higher than population in day time. From this picture, it can be found that the population in downtown it not the most biggest one, but the day time population is the largest. It shows that downtown, westville and uptown is the working place. These places will have the high population density.
on May 18, at 8:00am, the people who have the symptom of the illness gather in uptown, downtown, which are the working places. Except the west side which have the obvious increasing of the population who get the disease, the other place also have many people get illness as the time pass by.
The assumption is that the illness outbreak in the working place which have a high density of people, as the people from other zone come to this place, they also get the illness. So person to person transmission is might another way.
Intestines and stomach disease
Waterbone
From the picture, it can be found that on May 19, the symptoms appear. On May 20, the disease spread around and the number of people who get ill is increasing. However, the symptoms distribution only near the river. Combing with the car accident which happen on 610 highway near the river, It can be inferred that the toxic substances produced in the car accident flow down the river. The river supply the daily water to nearby citizens, so residents absorb the toxic substances in the river.
Epidemic Development Tendency
Firstly, check the number of text in the last few days. It can be found that the number of text is declined. However, Because we have 2 kinds of illness, we should see the trend line for each one of them. I do the forecast for this two illness, to check the tendency in the next 2 days.
On the left side is intestines and stomach disease tendency. It is obvious that the line haven't get its highest point, and in the next 2 days, the number of text which about this illness will be increased. So this illness might be contained in the few next days and will keep increase to a large extent. So the city officials should pay more attention on the illness and Is it necessary for emergency management personnel to deploy treatment resources near the river and the further places. Besides, the officials should clean up toxic substances in the water as quickly as possible, to prevent more and more people drink the water in this river.
On the right side is Flulike illness which is related to Respiratory. In the next 2 days, the illness will keep stable and there might be a small range of ups and downs fluctuation. This illness might contained for a while but it is declined. So the there is no need more emergency treatment. The hospitals in the city is enough to deal with it.
