ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign WANG RUI Insights

Mission

Information

Investigation

Insights

6 Steps to the Truth:

Step #6: Complete the Picture.

On May 17 during lunch hour, a truck got an accident on bridge 610 over the river. The spot was very close to downtown area, where many people worked at and therefore there are many witnesses. Around 500 microblogs related to this accident were reported. More than 20 Witnesses claimed that the severe accident smashed the truck and caused it to spill its cargo. But there was not much information on what the truck carried and what the leakage look like.
At that time, the sky is clear with West wind at 8 mile/hour. The river underneath flowed South at 3 mile/hour. 12 hours after the accident which is mid-night of May 18, there were less than 50 cases of fever reported. 7 hours later at 7 am in the morning, there was a outbreak of flu-like symptoms including fever, chill and breath shortage in working zones where people started to work. During the working hours of 8am to 6pm, 5891 ID cases on inhalation are posted. All of which are posted in the airborne transmission affecting locations.
On May 19, the situations become worse. 47% more inhalation cases were reported. Even worse, there was a outbreak of gastrointestinal symptoms along the vast river. The infected persons had symptoms like stomachache, vomit, diarrhea and nausea. These patients mostly stay at home from May 19 to May 20 and total number of gastrointestinal related patients didn't increase significantly.
On May 20, inhalation disease is still out of control as it is epidemic. All hospitals were crowed by patients with flu-like symptoms. Check this Tableau Dashboard

Origin
Question: Identify approximately where the outbreak started on the map (ground zero location). Outline the affected area. Explain how you arrived at your conclusion.
Answer: The outbreak location is near the 610 bridge. There are two parts of affected area. One part is on south of 610 bridge along the Vast river. The other part is on west of 610 bridge spread by the west wind.

Explanation	Visualization
1. Make Hypothesis on Symptoms According to previous analysis, hypothesis is made that there are two epidemics on-going at the same time, and different people are infected. Evidence is two different characteristics identified between inhalation-related and gastrointestinal-related epidemic. This hypothesis will be verified in the following analysis. Epi curve is used to visualize the onset of illness among cases associated with an outbreak. The outbreak's time pattern is implied by distribution of cases over time. According to the figures on the right, two epi curves are plotted separately for inhalation and gastrointestinal illness. Inhalation Fever Flu Chill Inhalation Findings.
2. Zoom into Hourly Message to Trace the Outbreak Point of Inhalation Findings
3. Title Here Findings Findings.
4. Title Here Findings Findings.
5. Title Here Findings Findings.
6. Validate the Hypothesis Findings Findings.

Transmission
Question: Present a hypothesis on how the infection is being transmitted. For example, is the method of transmission person-­to­-person, airborne, waterborne, or something else? Identify the trends that support your hypothesis.
Answer: The infection is transmitted from different channels. It is a mix of airborne, waterborne and person-to-person transmissions.

Explanation	Visualization
1. Identify Location and Special Event of Interest Findings Findings.
2. Title Here Findings Findings.
3. Title Here It can easily be seen that on May 18th, only the downtown area is affected, while on May 19th also the south-western part of the city along the river is affected. On May 20th, additionally a lot of smaller dense clusters show up; these correspond to the locations of hospitals. The word clouds to the right reveal further findings about development of characteristic symptoms. For the downtown area, the main symptoms developed from fever and shortness of breath on May 18th (a), to fever, flu and cough on May 19th (b). Finally, on May 20th pneumonia is reported (d). Interestingly, the symptoms in the south western part of the town are different. On both May 19th (c) and May 20th (e) diarrhea is the dominating symptom that people report about. Both diseases, however, may have their origin at the same location right in between the marked regions. An algorithm we designed to dis- cover anomalies in the geo-spatial distribution of Tweets identified a cluster right at that spot on May 17th. The Tweets talk about a truck accident with the truck spilling its cargo into the river. It is reasonable to hypothesize that the cargo was the cause of the dis- ease and the spread happened both waterborne along the river and airborne in wind direction to downtown. Findings.
4. Title Here Findings Findings.
4. Title Here Findings Findings.

Containment
Question:Is the outbreak contained? Is it necessary for emergency management personnel to deploy treatment resources outside the affected area? Explain your reasoning. (Please limit your answer to ten images and 1000 words. )
Answer: The outbreak is not contained and it is getting worse. Emergency management actions are necessary to control the epidemic from spreading out.

Explanation	Visualization
1. Title Here Findings Findings.
2. Title Here Findings Findings.	600px

Back to Step #5:
Perform Descriptive Epidemiology on Person.