ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign XING SIYUAN Visualization

Epidemic Spread in Smartpolis - Origin and Transmission

Background

Data Preparation & Dashboard Design

Insights

Conclusion

Insights

Origin and Spread

Description	Illustration
1.Origin & Spread of inhalation disease type Origin and Spread For symptoms related to inhalation diseases, the frequency of words mentioned was steady until 17 May. From 17 May onward, the frequency increased rapidly, which shows that the symptoms of inhalation disease start to appear. The day 17 May could be seen as the start time of the epidemic. The location of macroblogs related to symptoms of inhalation disease seems to first appear in the Smogtown, Downtown and Uptown area (as shown in the first figure). On 18 May, a huge number of people start to show the inhalation symptoms. The Downtown and Uptown area showed a high density of macroblogs mentioned about symptoms of the inhalation epidemic. Notice that on both 17 & 18 May, there is a west wind in Smartpolis, that may aggravate the spread of the epidemic towards east. Hence, people in the Eastside of Smartpolis are posting things related to the inhalation epidemic (as shown in the second figure). Affected Area On 20 May, the inhalation epidemic seems spread to all areas in Smartpolis, especially in Downtown, Uptown and Eastside areas, where the density of symptoms related post are relatively higher than other areas. (As shown in the left bottom figure)	17 May 2011, Inhalation Symptoms, West Wind: 18 May 2011, Inhalation Symptoms, West Wind: 20 May 2011, Inhalation Symptoms, North West Wind:
2.Origin & Spread of gastrointestinal disease type Origin and Spread For symptoms related to gastrointestinal diseases, the frequency of words mentioned was steady until 19 May. In 19 & 20 May, the frequency increased rapidly, which shows that the symptoms of gastrointestinal disease start to appear. However, different from inhalation symptoms, the gastrointestinal symptoms first appear alone Vast river and spread alone Vast river. The macroblogs density shows that the spread direction of gastrointestinal symptoms is the same with the flow direction of Vast river. Affected Area The main affected region by gastrointestinal diseases were areas near lower reaches of Vast river, i.e. Smogtown, Plainville and south area of Villa and Westside.	19 May 2011, Gastrointestinal Symptoms, West Wind: 20 May 2011, Gastrointestinal Symptoms, North West Wind:
3.Disease type There are only a few of people that shows symptoms of both type of diseases and the affected areas of the two diseases are quite different. Hence, we can conclude that there are two types of epidemic that is spreading in Smartpolis, one is Gastrointestinal diseases and the other is Inhalation diseases.
3.Major event caused the breakout Both of the disease seems to be breakout on 18 May. With text analysis on macroblogs post in intersection of the origin of both disease, we know that on 18 May, there was a terrible truck accident. The accident might cause the pollution of Vast river and that is why people live alone the river has suffered from gastrointestinal problem. In addition, traffic jam caused by the accident make large group of people gather together for a long time, that may cause the spread of inhalation disease.

Transmission

Description	Illustration
1.Transmission of inhalation disease Hypothesis: Airborne & person to person Explanation: Symptoms of inhalation disease were originated in Smogtown, Downdown and Uptwon areas. In Downtwon and Uptown region, where the population density was relatively large than other areas of Smartpolis, the disease spread fast. However, in Smogtown area. the density of infected people is of average in 19 & 20 May despite that Smogtown is the one of the origin of inhalation. Hence, Inhalation disease is highly possible transmitted from person to person and spreads faster with the increase of population density. Another possible transmission method of inhalation disease is airborne. This is because the spread direction of the disease is the same with the wind direction (as shown on the left figure).	17 May 2011, West Wind 20 May 2011, North West Wind
2.Transmission of gastrointestinal disease Hypothesis:Waterborne Explanation:The spread of gastrointestinal disease shows a direction that fellows the river flow direction. In addition, there is no obvious trend that the disease is spreading to the upstream or inland areas. Hence, it is very possible that the disease is transmitted by the river.	19 May 2011, gastrointestinal Symptoms:

Containability

Description	Illustration
1.Containability of inhalation disease From the figure on the right, there is no obvious drop or decrease in the number of macroblogs that mentioned symptoms of the inhalation disease. Hence, it is difficult to tell whether the disease has been well contained or it will break out worse. From the serious degree of symptoms aspect, the number of sore throat, breath difficulty, which can be clustered as early phase of the disease, has been decreasing, and the number of flu and chill, which are the mid-phase symptoms has been increasing. The number of symptoms of the most worse case, fever, has been decreasing as well. In addition, the patients who suffers from inhalation symptoms has been showing the pattern of gathering in hospitals in Smartpolis (as shown on left bottom figure). This means that inhalation disease is taking action to contain the situation. We can conclude that the situation just starts to getting better but we need to be carefully look at the weather of the next few days, especially the wind direction to prevent spread of the disease. In terms of deploy treatment resources, it is also highly depended on the weather and wind direction in the next few days. We recommend the government to deploy more resources to the wind direction and where with high population density.	Symptoms frequency across time: 20 May 2011:
2.Containability of gastrointestinal As for gastrointestinal disease, with the number of posted related to nausea and stomachache decrease and the number of posted related to pneumonia and diarrhea increase, there is a trend that people are getting worth in the last few days. Hence, it is urgent for the government to come up with method to contain the situation. In addition, the polluted water will flow to downstream of Smartfolis and cause people in other cites being affected. In addition, there is no sigh of gathering in hospital for people who suffered from gastrointestinal. One reason could be they are not aware of the reason for the discomfort and is not serious on the disease, feeling that they could recover soon. However, the disease might be caused by water pollution. In that circumstance, normal medicine of gastrointestinal disease treatment may not be very efficient. It is better for them to go to the hospital for further examination. Hence, it is necessary for government to deploy more treatment resources to face the upcoming increase of patient. Meanwhile, government of areas in downstream of smartpolis should be prepared and inform the public of possible pollution of Vast river to prevent the situation from getting worse.	Symptoms frequency across time: 20 May 2011: