ISS608 2017-18 T1 Assign KyonghwanKim Solution

Vastropolis Epidemic Report

Background

Data Preparation

Visualization

Solution

Reference

Feedback

1. Origin and Epidemic Spread

Identify approximately where the outbreak started on the map (ground zero location). Outline the affected area. Explain how you arrived at your conclusion. (Please limit your answer to six images and 500 words.)

Below line graph shows key words distribution from Contagion_Flag.csv file.

Key word, as well as the Diagnosis Word, flu remain calm till May 18th, and shoot up from 19th and 20th. Whereas, another Diagnosis Word, cold start to shoot up for May 18th and decrease back after. For Symptom key words, it start to increase from 18th and hit its peak on 19th.

From here, it is safe to say that words describing symptoms appear 1 day before flu. Therefore, symptoms plot on May 18th is closely monitored.

Symptom text traffic on May 18th

Map shows large symptom text traffic in Downtown and Uptown area, and graph is splitted in hours of activity to track what happened more precisely.

Hours, May 18th	0700-0800	0800-0900	2000-2100
Map

Symptom traffic was clam until 07:00 and started to leap up from 08:00. People mainly in Downtown started to have symptoms and it also start to spread to Eastside area. By 20:00 on same day, symptom text traffic appear all over Vastropolis area. It is not surprising that contagion from top 2 area with the highest floating_population would spread to all over the city.

Solution

Ground Zero area for Epidemic Outbreak: Downtown

2. Epidemic Spread

Part A

• Present a hypothesis on how the infection is being transmitted. For example, is the method of transmission person-­to­-person, airborne, waterborne, or something else? Identify the trends that support your hypothesis. (Please limit your answer to ten images and 1000 words.)

Hypothesis 1: People

Contagion outbreak started from Downtown, the 2nd largest area with floating_population.

• Top 3 area with positive (inflow) floating_population: Uptown, Downtown, Westside
• Top 3 area with negative (outflow) floating_population: Lakeside, Southville, Plainville

Contagion outbreak started at May 19th, 08:00.

Hours, May 19th	0700-0800	0800-0900	1800-1900
Map

Contagion started from central area in the morning on May 19th, then it start to spread all over Vastropolis including Lakeside, Southville and Plainville at 18:00. This time is when people finish work and go back home. People who went to work to central area in the morning will be infected and will go back to their places with contagion.

Hypothesis 2: Airborne

Weather.csv shows direction of wind and it blow mostly from West during outbreak period. However, text traffic on flu also leap up in West side as much as in East side of the city and shows that contagion spread out to everywhere regardless of direction of the wind. It is much more convincing that population movement contributed more than airborne.

Hypothesis 3: Waterborne

Date	May 19th	May 20th
Map

Above plot shows flu text traffic on May 19th and 20th when flu consumed all city areas. All places near the river is also showing people with flu. The river is flowing from north to south which explains there are more traffic by the river near Plainville than near Riverside. Another point is that residents living near lake in Lakeside and Suburbia seems fairly safe from contagion. This can explain that contagion is waterborne and people near lake had less impact from contagion than people near the river which goes directly through ground zero.

Solution

Hypothesis on how the infection is being transmitted: It first outbreak from "Downtown", then mainly spread by people to people. Additionally, contagion seems Waterborne as well. However, it does not seem Airborne.

Part B

• Is the outbreak contained? Is it necessary for emergency management personnel to deploy treatment resources outside the affected area? Explain your reasoning. (Please limit your answer to ten images and 1000 words. )

Temperature

There is another factor to epidemic outbreak of Vastropolis: Temperature.

Having different trend in "cold" with "flu", "cold" is more likely used to describe temperature then diagnosis.

Very large volume of cold text traffic is observed on May 18th only. It seems temperature dropped suddenly on May 18th, then weaken people's immune system, resulting epidemic outbreak. Volume of cold text traffic decrease after 18th and it seems temperature go back up where it was on 19th and 20th.

Symptom Text Traffic

Symptom Text Traffic is declining!

We can assume that in case of epidemic outbreak, there will be high traffic in symptoms key word. It went up from May 18th, which is 1 day before people start to post with their diagnosis, flu. However, above graph shows that symptom text traffic is declining. Also, outbreak is caused by population movement and waterborne. Relevant key word would be work, river, lake, drink, etc. As shown below word clouds, relevant words cannot be found.

Word Cloud, May 19th and 20th

Solution

The outbreak is contained.
Main cause of contagion is sudden drop of temperature. It went back up again. Also, text traffic regarding symptoms are declining. Lastly, no other words relevant to spread of contagion is not found.