Difference between revisions of "ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign RACHEL TONG Preface"
m |
|||
| (3 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown) | |||
| Line 41: | Line 41: | ||
As such, the strategy for this investigation about the mysterious outbreak will be centered on the following aspects. | As such, the strategy for this investigation about the mysterious outbreak will be centered on the following aspects. | ||
<div class=toc";float:right>__TOC__</div> | <div class=toc";float:right>__TOC__</div> | ||
| − | =Blind Hypotheses about Disease= | + | ==Blind Hypotheses about Disease== |
===Possible Disease Origins=== | ===Possible Disease Origins=== | ||
| Line 61: | Line 61: | ||
In context of communicable diseases, human-to-human transmission would possibly be identified in the presence of notable symptom-based patterns with congregations of people. Relevant areas of interest would include Vastopolis Dome and Westside Stadium, the Convention Center, the State Courthouse, and the Capital Building. It should also be noted that the central area, comprising mainly the Uptown and Downtown regions, have the highest percentage of daytime human traffic influx (290% and 190% of their baseline populations respectively – see graph below). The next region with a substantial increase in daytime population is Westside (90% increase). | In context of communicable diseases, human-to-human transmission would possibly be identified in the presence of notable symptom-based patterns with congregations of people. Relevant areas of interest would include Vastopolis Dome and Westside Stadium, the Convention Center, the State Courthouse, and the Capital Building. It should also be noted that the central area, comprising mainly the Uptown and Downtown regions, have the highest percentage of daytime human traffic influx (290% and 190% of their baseline populations respectively – see graph below). The next region with a substantial increase in daytime population is Westside (90% increase). | ||
| − | + | [[File:RT PopulationPlot.jpg|center|1000px|Percentage Increase in Daytime Population Over Baseline Population Density (By region)]] | |
| − | Considering the daytime population (thin blue bars) with respect to the percentage increments over the baseline population densities of each region, it may be seen that Westside and Downtown have the second and third largest daytime populations respectively. Moreover | + | Considering the daytime population (thin dark blue bars) with respect to the percentage increments over the baseline population densities of each region, it may be seen that Westside and Downtown have the second and third largest daytime populations respectively. Moreover, the Downtown and Uptown areas (at map centre in yellow outline) are visibly smaller than most other regions; comparable to only the Smogtown and regions Cornertown (bottom and top left corners, outlined in light orange). In contrast, the daytime population of Smogtown and Cornertown are still much smaller compared to the Uptown and Downtown regions. |
| − | + | [[File:RT smallregions.png|center|Smaller regions in Smartpolis]] | |
Additional points to note are that besides Cornertown, Villa, Riverside, and Smogtown, the rest of the regions have a sizeable efflux of human traffic of more than 10% in the daytime as seen by the negative percentage change in daytime population. It is highly likely that the central region is the destination of these daytime commuters, given the presence of the important administrative buildings (Capital Building, State Courthouse, and Convention Centre) in the central region, and the presence of the Westside Stadium in Westside. Given these high-concentration regions, symptom-related patterns originating in these locations could indicate the existence of human-to-human transmission. | Additional points to note are that besides Cornertown, Villa, Riverside, and Smogtown, the rest of the regions have a sizeable efflux of human traffic of more than 10% in the daytime as seen by the negative percentage change in daytime population. It is highly likely that the central region is the destination of these daytime commuters, given the presence of the important administrative buildings (Capital Building, State Courthouse, and Convention Centre) in the central region, and the presence of the Westside Stadium in Westside. Given these high-concentration regions, symptom-related patterns originating in these locations could indicate the existence of human-to-human transmission. | ||
====Air-borne Transmission==== | ====Air-borne Transmission==== | ||
| − | Considering any correlations between wind direction and symptom-related messages would indicate whether the disease is likely airborne. Funnel-shaped patterns are also telling of such a mode of spread, especially if the wind source corresponds with the narrower end of the funnel. | + | Considering any correlations between wind direction and symptom-related messages would indicate whether the disease is likely to be airborne. Funnel-shaped patterns are also telling of such a mode of spread, especially if the wind source corresponds with the narrower end of the funnel. The comparisons could be made by cross-referencing date/time-based snapshots of patterns of relevant symptom-related messages with the variation in weather pattern (especially wind direction and speed). |
====Water-borne Transmission==== | ====Water-borne Transmission==== | ||
Given the fact that one of the city’s water sources is the south-flowing river, and that major water-activities are also carried out at the river, a major water-borne disease would likely originate either from along the river or from reservoirs. It would also hit those living by the banks of the river with greater concentration and earlier than it would the rest of the city on the assumption that those living near the river are more likely to engage in water-based activities. | Given the fact that one of the city’s water sources is the south-flowing river, and that major water-activities are also carried out at the river, a major water-borne disease would likely originate either from along the river or from reservoirs. It would also hit those living by the banks of the river with greater concentration and earlier than it would the rest of the city on the assumption that those living near the river are more likely to engage in water-based activities. | ||
| − | =The Facts= | + | ==The Facts== |
Through personal sentiment derived from geo-tagged microblog data, the microblog file data allows phrase-based mentions to be tracked geospatially over time in order to identify patterns in the data. In particular, we are interested in patterns involving '''Symptoms''', and patterns involving '''major events within Smartpolis'''(especially those involving congregations of people, which are likely to give insight to human-to-human type disease spread hypotheses). | Through personal sentiment derived from geo-tagged microblog data, the microblog file data allows phrase-based mentions to be tracked geospatially over time in order to identify patterns in the data. In particular, we are interested in patterns involving '''Symptoms''', and patterns involving '''major events within Smartpolis'''(especially those involving congregations of people, which are likely to give insight to human-to-human type disease spread hypotheses). | ||
Latest revision as of 22:19, 15 October 2017
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Preface - Analysis Strategy |
Based on the data provided, we establish our knowledge of:
- The existence of a flu-like disease
- An approximate spatial/temporal understanding of various events at a person-level view
As such, the strategy for this investigation about the mysterious outbreak will be centered on the following aspects.
Blind Hypotheses about Disease
Possible Disease Origins
Contextually, there is a low probability of local-based animal source due to lack of agricultural dependency by economy. More probable disease origins could include human sources or exposure to biologically hazardous substances. Some specific scenarios (blindly hypothesized) are as follows.
- Human sources
- Isolated cases from travels abroad
- Bad weather could have caused a few source-individuals to fall ill
- Exposure to Biohazards
- Plant/Factory Explosion
- Food Poisoning
- Water supply contamination via sewage/river
- Biohazard spillage or leaks in public areas
Disease Transmission
For communicable diseases, transmission could be by either human-to-human contact, by air, or by water. It is also possible that some symptoms may be purely an effect of biohazard exposure and may thus be non-communicable.
Human-to-human
In context of communicable diseases, human-to-human transmission would possibly be identified in the presence of notable symptom-based patterns with congregations of people. Relevant areas of interest would include Vastopolis Dome and Westside Stadium, the Convention Center, the State Courthouse, and the Capital Building. It should also be noted that the central area, comprising mainly the Uptown and Downtown regions, have the highest percentage of daytime human traffic influx (290% and 190% of their baseline populations respectively – see graph below). The next region with a substantial increase in daytime population is Westside (90% increase).
Considering the daytime population (thin dark blue bars) with respect to the percentage increments over the baseline population densities of each region, it may be seen that Westside and Downtown have the second and third largest daytime populations respectively. Moreover, the Downtown and Uptown areas (at map centre in yellow outline) are visibly smaller than most other regions; comparable to only the Smogtown and regions Cornertown (bottom and top left corners, outlined in light orange). In contrast, the daytime population of Smogtown and Cornertown are still much smaller compared to the Uptown and Downtown regions.
Additional points to note are that besides Cornertown, Villa, Riverside, and Smogtown, the rest of the regions have a sizeable efflux of human traffic of more than 10% in the daytime as seen by the negative percentage change in daytime population. It is highly likely that the central region is the destination of these daytime commuters, given the presence of the important administrative buildings (Capital Building, State Courthouse, and Convention Centre) in the central region, and the presence of the Westside Stadium in Westside. Given these high-concentration regions, symptom-related patterns originating in these locations could indicate the existence of human-to-human transmission.
Air-borne Transmission
Considering any correlations between wind direction and symptom-related messages would indicate whether the disease is likely to be airborne. Funnel-shaped patterns are also telling of such a mode of spread, especially if the wind source corresponds with the narrower end of the funnel. The comparisons could be made by cross-referencing date/time-based snapshots of patterns of relevant symptom-related messages with the variation in weather pattern (especially wind direction and speed).
Water-borne Transmission
Given the fact that one of the city’s water sources is the south-flowing river, and that major water-activities are also carried out at the river, a major water-borne disease would likely originate either from along the river or from reservoirs. It would also hit those living by the banks of the river with greater concentration and earlier than it would the rest of the city on the assumption that those living near the river are more likely to engage in water-based activities.
The Facts
Through personal sentiment derived from geo-tagged microblog data, the microblog file data allows phrase-based mentions to be tracked geospatially over time in order to identify patterns in the data. In particular, we are interested in patterns involving Symptoms, and patterns involving major events within Smartpolis(especially those involving congregations of people, which are likely to give insight to human-to-human type disease spread hypotheses).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
