Difference between revisions of "ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign FOO CELONG RAYMOND/Hypothesis"
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<div style="color:#0F1940; padding-left: 10px; font-size: 24px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">Hypothesis</div> | <div style="color:#0F1940; padding-left: 10px; font-size: 24px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">Hypothesis</div> | ||
<hr style="margin-left:10px;margin-right:10px"> | <hr style="margin-left:10px;margin-right:10px"> | ||
<div style="padding-left: 10px; color:#0F1940; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace"> | <div style="padding-left: 10px; color:#0F1940; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace"> | ||
| − | <p>From the preliminary analysis and in the process of identifying the ground zero, two clear sets of symptoms belonging to two different outbreaks. I hypothesize that these two outbreaks are cause by a single incident on 17-May along highway 610 that occurred after the bridge to downtown. This report will identify the 3 factors of the transmission model (agent, host, environment) and provide evidence to support the claims.</p> | + | <p>From the preliminary analysis and in the process of identifying the ground zero, I discovered that there are two clear sets of symptoms belonging to two different outbreaks and the initial outbreak is a point source outbreak. I hypothesize that these two outbreaks are cause by a single incident on 17-May along highway 610 that occurred after the bridge to downtown. This report will identify the 3 factors of the transmission model (agent, host, environment) and provide evidence to support the claims.</p> |
<p>The hypothesized series of event is as follows:</p> | <p>The hypothesized series of event is as follows:</p> | ||
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<td style="vertical-align:top">17/18-May</td> | <td style="vertical-align:top">17/18-May</td> | ||
<td style="vertical-align:top">:</td> | <td style="vertical-align:top">:</td> | ||
| − | <td>Agent contaminates water along vast river either through diffusion into water | + | <td>Agent contaminates water along vast river either through diffusion into water or direct spillage of contaminants into the water body and thereby exposing hosts living downstream that relies on river for their water supply</td> |
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| + | <td style="vertical-align:top">18-May</td> | ||
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| + | <td>Technology convention held at the convention center at uptown which exposed additional people to the agent</td> | ||
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| + | <div style="color:#0F1940; padding-left: 10px; font-size: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2. Hosts</div> | ||
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| + | <div style="padding-left: 10px; color:#0F1940; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace"> | ||
| + | [[File:RaymDistributionOutbreak1.png|800px|center]] | ||
| + | <p>Although I identified downtown as the ground zero of the first outbreak, plotting the percentage of population that posted about the disease show that uptown has a higher percentage of its population showing symptoms. This seems to imply that although there are more people infected in downtown, the uptown's population is slightly more susceptible to the agent.</p> | ||
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| + | <p>The distribution of the newly reported cases over time is also in agreement that this is an air borne agent. The data show that the initial the areas east of downtown (including downtown) are the most severely affected. But over a period of 2 days time, the distribution across all zone not only becomes more uniform but has also reduced on average. This is in agreement to the hypothesis that initial those area has high concentration of the agent due to wind condition but the concentration will be spread out across the whole region via diffusion.</p> | ||
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| + | [[File:RaymDistributionOutbreak2.png|600px|center]] | ||
| + | <p>For the second outbreak, only 3 city zones are affected. All 3 regions (smogtown, plainville and westside) share border with the vast river and draws water from the river for their water supply. This also supports the hypothesis of a water borne agent that contaminated the downstream from bridge at highway 610.</p> | ||
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Revision as of 17:05, 15 October 2017
