Difference between revisions of "ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign WU YUQING Analysis & Solutions"
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[[Image:yqwu_May18_8AM.png|border|450px]]<br> | [[Image:yqwu_May18_8AM.png|border|450px]]<br> | ||
[[Image:yqwu_May18_9AM.png|border|450px]]<br> | [[Image:yqwu_May18_9AM.png|border|450px]]<br> | ||
| + | From the geographical distribution of flu-related messages (One yellow point stands for one flu-related message from one user) from 7am to 10am on May 18th, we can see that the number of flu-related microblogs suddenly increased significantly between 8am to 9am on May 18th and kept stable between 9am to 10am and these messages mainly concentrated in the zone of Downtown, Uptown and Eastside, especially the Downtown and southern Uptown. In addition, these messages seem that they concentrated near the Vastopolis Dome (one stadium), Vastopolis City Hospital and Convention Centre.<br> | ||
| + | After the outbreak at 8am, we can find that the epidemic suddenly expanded to the Vast River’s both sides mainly in the zone of Southern Westside and Plainville at 2AM on May 19th, 2011 as shown below. | ||
| + | This is another serious outbreak.<br> | ||
| + | [[Image:yqwu_May19_2AM.png|border|450px]]<br> | ||
| + | In this epidemic, the main affected areas have been highlighted in the red rectangle on May 18th and in the white rectangle on May 19th respectively above. The most affected area is Downtown and the river sides in Westside and Plainville.<br> | ||
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=<font color=6A5ACD><font size=3><b>Question 2: Epidemic Spread</b></font></font>= | =<font color=6A5ACD><font size=3><b>Question 2: Epidemic Spread</b></font></font>= | ||
<font color=6A5ACD>#2.1 Present a hypothesis on how the infection is being transmitted. For example, is the method of transmission person-to-person, airborne, waterborne, or something else? Identify the trends that support your hypothesis. (Please limit your answer to ten images and 1000 words.)</font><br> | <font color=6A5ACD>#2.1 Present a hypothesis on how the infection is being transmitted. For example, is the method of transmission person-to-person, airborne, waterborne, or something else? Identify the trends that support your hypothesis. (Please limit your answer to ten images and 1000 words.)</font><br> | ||
Revision as of 11:23, 15 October 2017
Vast Challenge 2011 MC1: Characterization of an Epidemic Spread
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Analysis & Solutions Tool: JMP Pro & Tableau
Question 1: Origin and Epidemic Spread
Identify approximately where the outbreak started on the map (ground zero location). Outline the affected area. Explain how you arrived at your conclusion. (Please limit your answer to six images and 500 words.)
Firstly, from the ‘preprocess.txt’, the messages containing symptoms are used to build the distribution of the number of flu-related messages by date as shown below. From the distribution, we can see that the number of flu-related messages on May 18th, May 19th, May 20th are significantly larger than the previous date. The number of flu-related messages peaked on May 19th. Thus, we can easily conclude that the epidemic outbroke on May 18th.
Distribution of Flu-related Messages By Date
To further identify the origin and the specific time of the outbreak, we can further check the geographical distribution of flu-related messages on May 18th by hour as shown below.
From the geographical distribution of flu-related messages (One yellow point stands for one flu-related message from one user) from 7am to 10am on May 18th, we can see that the number of flu-related microblogs suddenly increased significantly between 8am to 9am on May 18th and kept stable between 9am to 10am and these messages mainly concentrated in the zone of Downtown, Uptown and Eastside, especially the Downtown and southern Uptown. In addition, these messages seem that they concentrated near the Vastopolis Dome (one stadium), Vastopolis City Hospital and Convention Centre.
After the outbreak at 8am, we can find that the epidemic suddenly expanded to the Vast River’s both sides mainly in the zone of Southern Westside and Plainville at 2AM on May 19th, 2011 as shown below.
This is another serious outbreak.
In this epidemic, the main affected areas have been highlighted in the red rectangle on May 18th and in the white rectangle on May 19th respectively above. The most affected area is Downtown and the river sides in Westside and Plainville.
Question 2: Epidemic Spread
#2.1 Present a hypothesis on how the infection is being transmitted. For example, is the method of transmission person-to-person, airborne, waterborne, or something else? Identify the trends that support your hypothesis. (Please limit your answer to ten images and 1000 words.)
