Difference between revisions of "ISSS608 2017-18 T1 Assign FOO CELONG RAYMOND/Preliminary"
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<td width="40%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:left;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND/MakingSenseOfTheChatter|< Making Sense of the Chatters]]</td> | <td width="40%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:left;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND/MakingSenseOfTheChatter|< Making Sense of the Chatters]]</td> | ||
<td width="20%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:center;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND|Home]]</td> | <td width="20%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:center;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND|Home]]</td> | ||
| − | <td width="40%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:right;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND/ | + | <td width="40%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:right;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND/IdentifyGroundZero|Identify Ground Zero >]]</td> |
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</table> | </table> | ||
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| − | <div style="color:#0F1940; padding-left: 10px; font-size: | + | <div style="color:#0F1940; padding-left: 10px; font-size: 24px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">Transmission Model</div> |
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<div style="padding-left: 10px; color:#0F1940; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace"> | <div style="padding-left: 10px; color:#0F1940; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace"> | ||
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<p>The epidemioloic triad is a traditional model for infectious disease. It consists of the external agent, the susceptible host and the environment that results in the interaction between the host and the agent. My hypothesis for the transmission will need to address the 3 factors.</p> | <p>The epidemioloic triad is a traditional model for infectious disease. It consists of the external agent, the susceptible host and the environment that results in the interaction between the host and the agent. My hypothesis for the transmission will need to address the 3 factors.</p> | ||
| + | </div> | ||
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| + | <div style="color:#0F1940; padding-left: 10px; font-size: 24px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">Epi Curves</div> | ||
| + | <hr style="margin-left:10px;margin-right:10px"> | ||
| + | <div style="padding-left: 10px; color:#0F1940; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace"> | ||
[[File:RaymEpi17May.png|500px|center]] | [[File:RaymEpi17May.png|500px|center]] | ||
| − | <p>On studying the Epi curve of the individual symptoms, I noticed not all the symptoms starts at the same time. One group of symptoms | + | <p>On studying the Epi curve of the individual symptoms, I noticed not all the symptoms starts at the same time. One group of symptoms started manifesting from the 18-May. The epi curves of the 18-May symptoms suggest that I am looking at <u>point source outbreak</u> because most of the curves have the telltale shape of steadily reaching the peak and declining after reaching the peak which is the typical shape of a point source outbreak. A continuous common source outbreak would have sustained the peak for a longer time and even have multiple peaks.</p> |
[[File:RaymEpi19May.png|500px|center]] | [[File:RaymEpi19May.png|500px|center]] | ||
| − | <p>The second group of symptoms | + | <p>The second group of symptoms started manifesting from the 19-May. This may be due to symptoms that develop in the later stage of the illness or even caused by a unrelated outbreak of a separate disease. However, because the data presented only contains micro blog up to 20-May, there is insufficient data to determine if these set of epi curves are from a point source or a continuous common source outbreak.</p> |
[[File:RaymEvents.png|500px|center]] | [[File:RaymEvents.png|500px|center]] | ||
| − | <p>Notable events that may be related to the outbreak are truck accidents, conventions and an potentially premeditated explosion.</p> | + | <p>Notable events that may be related to the outbreak are truck accidents, conventions and an explosion in smogtown. I noted that the explosion at smogtown is potentially premeditated as there were chatters about an explosion happening just one day before the actual explosion.</p> |
| + | </div> | ||
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| + | <div style="width:900px; background-color:#c0c0c0; height: 35px; border-bottom: 1px solid #9e9e9e; border-top: 1px solid #9e9e9e;"> | ||
| + | <table style="width:900px;"> | ||
| + | <tr> | ||
| + | <td width="40%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:left;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND/MakingSenseOfTheChatter|< Making Sense of the Chatters]]</td> | ||
| + | <td width="20%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:center;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND|Home]]</td> | ||
| + | <td width="40%" style="color:#ffffff;text-align:right;font-size: 18px;">[[ISSS608_2017-18_T1_Assign_FOO_CELONG_RAYMOND/TrackingTheSpread|Tracking the spread >]]</td> | ||
| + | </tr> | ||
| + | </table> | ||
</div> | </div> | ||
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</div> | </div> | ||
Latest revision as of 02:42, 15 October 2017
Transmission Model
The epidemioloic triad is a traditional model for infectious disease. It consists of the external agent, the susceptible host and the environment that results in the interaction between the host and the agent. My hypothesis for the transmission will need to address the 3 factors.
Epi Curves
On studying the Epi curve of the individual symptoms, I noticed not all the symptoms starts at the same time. One group of symptoms started manifesting from the 18-May. The epi curves of the 18-May symptoms suggest that I am looking at point source outbreak because most of the curves have the telltale shape of steadily reaching the peak and declining after reaching the peak which is the typical shape of a point source outbreak. A continuous common source outbreak would have sustained the peak for a longer time and even have multiple peaks.
The second group of symptoms started manifesting from the 19-May. This may be due to symptoms that develop in the later stage of the illness or even caused by a unrelated outbreak of a separate disease. However, because the data presented only contains micro blog up to 20-May, there is insufficient data to determine if these set of epi curves are from a point source or a continuous common source outbreak.
Notable events that may be related to the outbreak are truck accidents, conventions and an explosion in smogtown. I noted that the explosion at smogtown is potentially premeditated as there were chatters about an explosion happening just one day before the actual explosion.
