IS428 2016-17 Term1 Assign1 Chen Huiyan

Abstract

The focus of this project is to reveal patterns regarding the share of private properties supply as well as the distribution of the private properties prices in 2015. Through these findings, the project is able to provide policy recommendations for 2016.

Problem and Motivation

According to available executive condominium chart, except for quarter4 in 2015, the vacancy rate of each quarter is around 15% and for available private properties chart, the vacancy rate is around 7% or 8%, although the price of private property is declining in 2015. From this phenomenon, we can deduce that the demand for private properties is not promising. Therefore, the government may consider easing cooling measurement to stimulate the private property development.

Approaches

Through examining the supplies in the pipeline of private properties and executive condominium by development status and completed supplies which are available to sell, readers will have a better picture about the share of private properties supplies in 2015. Even though private properties prices are declining, the market is still downbeat by analyzing vacancy rates.

Tools Utilized

• Tableau
• Excel
• REALIS

The Share of Private Properties Supplies in 2015

Rationale of data selection:
I have found supply in the pipeline for both private residential units and executive condominiums which contribute to private properties supplies in 2015.

Three patterns observed:

• Supply of private residential units in the pipeline is decreasing in 2015.
• Supply of executive condominiums in the pipeline is declining in 2015.
• The total supply in the pipeline is decreasing in 2015.

Rationale of chart design:
I choose the stacked bar chart to differentiate the pipeline supply of private residential units from executive condominiums under the same period and label the number of units for executive condominium to let readers have a clear view of changes.

Break down supply of private residential units in the pipeline

Break down supply of executive condominiums in the pipeline

Rationale of chart design:
I choose side-by-side bar chart to represent different types of pipeline supply by using different colours for private residential units and executive condominium.

Available Private Properties and Executive Condominium

The Distribution of The Private Properties Prices in 2015

Rationale of data selection:
I have found a data set on property price index of private residential properties to represent the distribution of prices in 2015. The prices in 2009Q1 are the base reference price of the index.

Three patterns observed:

• There is a downtrend for property price index of private residential properties in 2015 which shows prices of private residential properties declined in 2015.
• For 2015, the prices dropped by 3.7% compared with the 4.0% decreasing in 2014.
• The graph indicates a gradual downtrend towards 2016.

Rationale of chart design:
I choose a line chart to represent the dataset because it allows reader easily view the trend of private properties prices in 2015.

Inforgraphics

Results

After analyzing data-set above, the private property market is not optimistic in 2015. Despite the private properties supply is decreasing and there are few planned supplies (supply with provisional permission, supply with written permission and others) in the pipeline in 2015, the government may think about easing cooling measurement to encourage the demand of private properties, otherwise the vacancy rate will still remain moderately high.
Hence, I suggest some policy recommendation for 2016:

• Reduce additional buyer stamp duties for both citizens and foreigners to minimize costs of purchasing private properties.
• Lower down loan-to-valuation ratios cap so that borrowers are able to borrow more to purchase private properties.
• Decrease the seller’s stamp duty to encourage more people sell their private properties.